IIn rain-soaked Sunbury, a picturesque commuter town on the banks of the swollen Thames, enthusiasm for the Conservatives ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s pre-election budget Not high, even among the party’s erstwhile supporters.

Barrister Simon Wheatley, 67, avoided the puddle, describing himself as “traditionally conservative; at the moment, undecided”.

“I suspect I’m very dissatisfied at the moment and probably won’t vote,” he added. Asked whether Hunt would tempt him with budget giveaways on Wednesday, he sighed. “I’m concerned that it has become very political and not necessarily focused on the long-term economy.”

Outside a series of nearby shops, a lively grandmother, who did not want to be named, described the “real dilemma” she faced as a member of the Conservative Party at the general election.

Sunbury is in former Prime Minister Kwasi Kwarteng’s Spelthorne constituency and is situated at the top of the M3. The 59-mile motorway, which stretches southwest from London and is packed with weekend travelers heading to the New Forest and coast in summer, tells the story of Britain’s changing political landscape.

On its way to Southampton’s northern edge, it passes a series of other Conservative seats, some of which have not changed hands for years. These bustling commuter towns and cities and their rural hinterlands were not a battleground in the last election in 2019, when campaigning focused on the “Red Wall” hundreds of miles to the north.

But while the Conservatives may be safe in Spelthorn with Kwarten set to step down, at least three constituencies along the M3 corridor – Surrey Heath, Basingstoke and Winchester – are The electoral battle will be a tough one.

Professor Will Jennings, an elections expert at the University of Southampton, said: “This M3 corridor – call it the blue wall, call it the south of England – is an increasingly challenging issue for the Conservatives. Home to a sexually diverse population.

“They used to be areas that were wealthy, had cars, had jobs. Those demographics have skewed away from the Conservatives in the period of political change we’ve seen over the past five years since Brexit. That doesn’t mean all these seats will Going red and orange, but it does mean the Conservatives are going to have some real battles.”

A short drive along the M3 from Sunbury, at the Lib Dem constituency headquarters in central Camberley, Al Pinkerton, an academic at Royal Holloway, University of London and a parliamentary candidate, has Get ready for a fight like this.

Promotion secretary Michael Gove has yet to be confirmed as a candidate for the Surrey Heath constituency, but Pinkerton and his team have spoken to around 3,000 voters since the New Year.

He said they kept hearing the same laments – about the state of the NHS, the cost of living, sewage in rivers and a wider distrust of politicians – and he said some of them said they would support the right-wing Reform Party.

“People used to say Surrey, it’s an old joke, put a blue rosette on it – insert farm animal here – and it will win. That’s not the case. Even though we’ve paid a huge amount for this change It’s hard work, but it happens very quickly.”

He pointed to a change in control of Surrey Heath Borough Council, which the Lib Dems took over from the Conservatives last May after a series of venture capital investments caused a hole in its finances.

As for whether Hunt can win plaudits in a constituency with a giveaway budget – apparently Westminster’s hope – Pinkerton is skeptical. “I don’t know, I don’t have a crystal ball. But when I talk to people, they have factored tax cuts into their thinking, and they reserve the right not to be persuaded.”

A further half-hour south-west, the M3 skirts the southern edge of the Basingstoke constituency, which has been Conservative since 1924, barring one year when the sitting MP quixotically joined the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).

Party MP Maria Miller called Basingstoke “the economic powerhouse of Hampshire”. She noted that government spending in the town has increased dramatically in recent decades. She also highlighted a statue of local hero Jane Austen – she said she spent more time there than in Bath – which Miller raised funds to build.

“We’ve invested heavily in roads and schools. What we have to do now is make sure the NHS, which is probably the hardest public service to expand, can catch up,” she said. “I think what people in Basingstoke will be looking for in the budget is how they can keep more of their income. The cost of living is a huge pressure in the south-east.”

Some voters told a different story. Just around the corner from the Austin Statue, in historic downtown, 40-year-old ultrarunner Adam McCartney has just purchased a headlamp for use in all-weather races.

“I feel like it’s getting more rundown, especially in this end of town. The shopping center needs to be filled in: it was a desolate place. When it first opened, every unit was full, but now it’s very Less,” he said.

“It’s been a steady decline. Over the last few years it feels like it’s accelerating. It feels like the current Conservative regime has left it to them – they’ve given up on it and thought, ‘There’s something there It’s enough to keep people going, so let’s just let them do it’.”

Newly elected Labor candidate Luke Murphy has listed a series of now-familiar questions that have cropped up in chats on his doorstep. “GP appointments, dentist check-ins, status at the top of town. It’s just people’s everyday experience.”

Murphy acknowledged he would face a tough challenge if he wanted to replace Miller, noting that a Labor victory here would be historic. The 12.2% swing required is strikingly similar to the average 12.7% swing his party needs to win a majority nationally. Latest research from veteran election observers Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher.

As he walked through Festival Place shopping centre, Murphy was greeted by Deborah Reavell, 77, who said she was “excited” about the election and highlighted gaps in NHS services. “Well, it’s universal isn’t it? You have to use Dr. Google and figure it out for yourself.”

Twenty miles southwest of Basingstoke is the historic city of Winchester, home to the famous public school that trained Rishi Sunak. The affluent semi-rural constituency was Liberal Democrats from 1997 to 2010 when Clement Attlee was overwhelmingly elected as a Labor MP after the war, but has been firmly in favor since then The land belongs to the Conservative Party.

She will represent the Conservatives here as boundaries change in part of neighboring MP Flick Drummond’s seat, while current MP and former health secretary Steve Brine will Step down.

Paul Morgan, managing director of office supplies company Warrens Office, said Winchester was booming. “I think we are isolated from the rest of the UK because we are only an hour away from London,” he said, highlighting the bustling high street which is increasingly becoming a leisure destination.

“I think a lot of people are high earners with connections to London. They might drive a 20-year-old Volvo but they have a cash deposit and it’s segregated. So I don’t think we’re representative of the rest of the UK .”

While he was relatively optimistic about the prospects, he was harshly critical of the Conservatives’ record. “The Conservatives have lost power based on their current performance,” he said. “The Conservatives have missed one of the first principles, which is that they should be the party of low taxes.”

While Morgan doesn’t like Labor – “I can’t imagine them leaving the country in a better position after a period of time in power than when they started” – he thinks some voters here will either abstain or vote Abstain from voting. , or switch to the Lib Dems. “But it’s not based on desire, it’s based on the least bad option.”

Lib Dem candidate Danny Chambers, a veterinarian who specializes in treating horses, said many of his conversations with constituents had highlighted the same concerns echoing up and down the M3 corridor – a deep distrust of politicians, and Despair at the state of public services, particularly the NHS – seems unlikely to be remedied by a single budget, no matter how generous.

“They just feel taken for granted; they feel like no one has ever knocked on their door before and no one cares about them. I think people desperately need better public services, from roads without potholes to roads that won’t This is true of everything from substances leaking into rivers to sewage systems to NHS medical services. People would rather get the mental health care they need for their child who is struggling, or for their grandfather Social care, not tax cuts.”

Back in Winchester High Street, 72-year-old Geoff Evans laments that the current crop of politicians – regardless of party – are the worst he has ever seen in his life. “Professional politicians, they don’t have a clue. Half of them don’t have innate common sense,” he said. “I hate to say it, but the best thing, if possible, would be to bring Margaret Thatcher back.”