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EEuropean allies shaken by provocation In recent months NATO has accused Russia on its eastern border brazen invasion of foreign soil Testing factional reactions and weakening collective resolve.
Russia has long been accused of interfering in European affairs. But the issue came into focus again in September, when about two dozen drones crossed the border poland between one Massive Russian drone attack on UkraineA few days later, jets breached Estonia, airfield As Russia concludes major exercises in Belarus.
later activity near the border Europeans have been forced to close airports and borders, causing major disruption and exposing vulnerabilities. Businesses have responded with a wave of military and civilian innovations to protect the continent against the threats of modern warfare.
This week, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said a domestic railway line used to deliver aid to Ukraine was damaged in an explosion that he described as an act of sabotage. His security services minister said everything seemed to point towards Russia.
A Turkish tanker on the Danube River between Ukraine and Romania was attacked and set on fire in a drone strike, officials said, as Russian drones attacked the area overnight. Local media reported that Romanian villages were evacuated and Romanian soldiers searching for the drones withdrew from their positions.
This is what analysts say Russia deliberately provoking nato To see how it reacts, gathering information that could be useful when it decides the time is right to take action against the alliance member.
Romanian border attack
A drone struck a Turkish-flagged tanker in Ukraine’s southern Odessa region on Nov. 17, a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a deal to import U.S. liquefied natural gas through the region, officials said.
MT Orinda crashed while offloading petroleum gas at the port of Izmail, leading to the evacuation of the ship. Residents of nearby villages across the Danube in Romania were forced from their homes. No one was injured.
Since its full-scale invasion of its neighbor nearly four years ago, Russia has used drones, missiles and artillery to repeatedly attack the Odessa region, particularly its Black Sea ports. There was no immediate comment from Russia on Monday.
Polish train-track explosion
Russia was soon blamed for the November 16 explosion that damaged Polish railway tracks en route to Ukraine, as Prime Minister Donald Tusk vowed to hold those responsible.
Poland’s Security Service Minister Tomasz Szymoniak said the attack on a section of track near the village of Mika was “a new stage of endangering the railway infrastructure”, before a spokesman for the minister said everything pointed to sabotage by a Russian intelligence commission.
While visiting the site on Monday, the Prime Minister said the incident had occurred on a line that is vital for delivering aid to Ukraine.
Polish authorities said they were confident that an explosive device was detonated on a section of track between Warsaw and Lublin and later caused damage to overhead cables on the same line. Polish authorities said the two were likely carrying out sabotage.
Associate Fee Institute (RUSI) Independent Russia continues to carry out provocations against NATO members in Europe to “signal that Moscow has the potential to escalate the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders”.
“In doing so, Putin aims to pressure the West into concessions by increasing the perceived costs of continued confrontation,” he said.
interception on the baltic
poland On 30 October it said its fighters were scrambled to intercept a Russian reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea in the second such incident in a week.
Two days earlier, Polish jets had intercepted a Russian plane flying in international airspace over the Baltic without a flight plan and with its transponder turned off.
Separately, Polish airports in Radom and Lublin reopened on Thursday after being closed due to military aviation activity. Russian attacks on border facilities ukraine Polish and Allied aircraft were seen scrambling.
“These provocations also serve as a stress test for NATO unity,” Sesquiria explained. “By probing weaknesses and divisions among European allies and forcing Europe to focus inward to defend its airspace and critical infrastructure, Russia hopes to weaken collective resolve and weaken transatlantic solidarity”.
This, he said, would help Russia improve its bargaining position ahead of any negotiations over the fate of Ukraine.
weather balloons in lithuania
Lithuania said on October 29 that it would continue to close border crossings. belarus By November in response to airspace disruption by smuggler balloons.
Airports in Lithuania had to be closed several times in October due to balloons filled with cigarette butts. The EU said the balloons “take place in the context of a wider targeted hybrid campaign”.
belarus‘The president called the borders a “crazy scam” and accused the West of waging a hybrid war against Belarus Russia,
Naval provocation in Denmark
Denmark accused Russian warships of repeatedly being on a collision course with Danish naval vessels and disrupting navigation systems in the strait connecting the Baltic to the North Sea in early October.
The Ministry of Defense Intelligence said on October 3 that such incidents pose a risk of unexpected escalation. The ministry said Danish ships and helicopters were targeted by tracking radar and attacked with weapons.
Drone seen over Denmark
The Danish Armed Forces reported in late September that unidentified drones had been sighted near military installations.
On 24 September, airports in Aalborg and Billund had to be closed briefly due to reports of drone activity. Copenhagen Airport also had to be closed on 22 September. The Danish Prime Minister said that Russian involvement could not be ruled out. The Kremlin described the allegations as “baseless”.
In nearby Norway, Oslo airport was also closed due to possible drone sightings.
Cescuria said that according to his assessment, it is likely that Russia will continue to carry out provocations that “will remain below the threshold of a conventional military response”, especially while diplomatic momentum is slow or faltering.
He said Moscow’s strategy relies on sustained pressure to test Western “resolve” without retaliating. “Where this goes will largely depend on NATO’s ability to demonstrate unity and resilience,” he said.
Infiltration of fighter planes in Estonia
Three Russian military jets violated NATO member Estonia’s airspace for 12 minutes on September 19 in an “unprecedentedly brazen” intrusion, according to the government.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsakhna said this is the fourth time Russia has violated Estonian airspace in 2025.
The Foreign Ministry said the intrusion involved three Russian MIG-31 fighter planes and took place over the Gulf of Finland. A ministry statement said the Russian charge d’affaires was summoned and given a protest note.
military exercises on nato border
Russia and Belarus held joint military exercises in Belarus between 12 and 16 September – an event with prior planning, but coinciding with heightened tensions over recent drone intrusions.
Analysts at the time noted that Russia used the exercises in 2021 to build up troop numbers before attacking Ukraine months later.
Poland, Lithuania and Latvia all increased security around the 2025 exercises, including ‘planning for the use’ of nuclear weapons.
Drone incidents in Eastern Europe
On 13 September a Russian drone violated Romanian airspace, forcing the military to ground fighter planes.
The Defense Ministry said the incident occurred during a Russian attack on Ukrainian infrastructure near the border.
Poland reported two days later that a drone was flown over the presidential palace, which it called a “provocation”. Two Belarusians were arrested.