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Apart from Congress and BJP, there are RJD, JDU, VIP, HAM, LJP, AIMIM, JSP, RLM, Left parties and JAP.
In the last two decades, no party has crossed 25 percent vote share in Bihar assembly elections. In this scenario, where the leading party’s vote share is in the 20s, alliances are important.
Not a single party ever wins in Bihar; It is always an alliance of four to five. Despite prohibition, the state’s complex caste politics make it challenging for newcomers.
I have recently returned from a week-long tour of Bihar and will analyze who has the upper hand in the upcoming elections. Does NDA have advantage in the last phase? Had the Opposition reached its ‘Voter Rights March’ on the SIR (Special Intensive Review) issue too early? Let’s break it down.
First of all, the NDA has a strong caste alliance this time. BJP, JDU, LJP, HAM and RLM cover almost every caste group in Bihar, while the Muslim-Yadav block remains the strength of the opposition. The ruling coalition includes upper caste voters and backward castes.
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Another strength of the NDA is its focus on development and infrastructure, including new bridges, highways and airports. There is a quiet confidence among top leaders.
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, despite being 74 and facing questions about his mental abilities from the opposition, still enjoys considerable goodwill and is considered intelligent. Is a game-changer for NDA 10,000 scheme given to 75 lakh women under the CM Mahila Rozgar Yojana.
The women who have used this money to buy goats or calves still have faith in Nitish Kumar. The prohibition following this significant cash transfer has strengthened their support for him.
The NDA’s seat-sharing arrangement reflects solidarity and mutual consent rather than politics of pressure. The BJP and JD(U) will contest on 101 seats each, marking a significant change in their dynamics as they will contest the same number of seats for the first time. This changes the traditional ‘elder brother, younger brother’ perception of both the parties.
Chirag Paswan’s LJP is contesting on 29 seats, marking his full return to the NDA. In 2020, they contested 135 seats independently and in 2015, they contested 42 seats when JD(U) was not part of the NDA. In 2010, he contested 75 seats with RJD. This time mutual consent has been reached.
Jitan Ram Manjhi, who contested on seven seats last time, has got six seats within the NDA, along with one Lok Sabha MP and one Union Minister, increasing his stature. Upendra Kushwaha is currently in Rajya Sabha and can become a Union Minister in future. They have also been allotted six assembly seats. All alliance partners have publicly welcomed the seat-sharing arrangement, which reflects the harmony within the NDA.
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In the 2020 elections, both Chirag and Kushwaha contested outside the NDA and negatively impacted JDU’s seat tally. This time, with both of them being part of the NDA, the possibility of such damage has reduced.
NDA is facing the challenge of Nitish Kumar’s mental health, with the opposition’s continuous attacks portraying him as ‘absentee CM’. However, many people still view him as an intelligent leader with empathy. Also, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign is yet to begin.
On the other hand, the grand alliance seems to be in disarray and may have reached its peak long ago with its trip last month on the SIR issue. Problems of seat distribution and unreliable allies like VIP’s Mukesh Sahni are creating issues.
In the 2020 elections, the RJD performed well, but the Congress pulled out of the alliance by winning only 19 of the 70 seats it contested. This time too it seems to be the same.
Rahul Gandhi’s visit stirred up some emotions in the Congress on the SIR issue, but it seems it soon reached its peak. Tejashwi Yadav appeared to be overshadowing Gandhi and later he took out his journey.
RJD, stuck at 23 percent vote share since the last election, is trying to move ahead with its MY vote bank but it is finding it difficult. Legal troubles for the Yadav family are further complicating the matter.
In a desperate move, Tejashwi announced the promise of a government job for every family in Bihar, which seems more like election-inspired theatrics rather than a well-thought-out policy. This promise would require creating 21.5 million new jobs, which would cost approximately Rs 4.6 lakh crore annually, almost double the entire budget of the state.
Bihar is in an economic crisis, and the culture of freebies from RJD or JD(U) is not helping. The wild card in this election is Prashant Kishore and his Jan Suraj Party.
Kishor is appealing to the youth of Bihar to rise above caste politics and vote for their future, end migration and lift prohibition. He is counting on the despair among the youth. Their vote share, whether in single or double digits, can have a significant impact on the election outcome.