Actor Joseph Vijay’s Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK) has from the outset positioned itself as an anti-DMK (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) force, open to alliances with other political parties, including the principal opposition party, the AIADMK (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam). Vijay’s colleagues from Tamil cinema who entered politics—such as Kamal Haasan in 2018 and the late Vijayakanth in 2006—learned the hard way that it’s nearly impossible to win an election without aligning with one of the two major Dravidian parties.
For instance, actor Vijayakanth’s DMDK (Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam) in the 2006 assembly election and Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM) in the 2019 Lok Sabha election both positioned themselves as third-force alternatives to both the DMK and AIADMK, but neither made any significant impact. Vijayakanth’s DMDK secured 8% of the vote in 2006 but won just one assembly seat. But in 2011, when he joined the AIADMK alliance, his party bagged 28 seats. More recently, Kamal Haasan’s MNM saw disappointing performances in the 2019 and 2021 elections, leading the party to align with the DMK.
The Two Biggest Parties
Historically, the AIADMK and the DMK have held the first and second-largest vote shares in the state, respectively, even during their worst performances. For example, the DMK’s worst election in recent history was in 2014, but the party still garnered 22% of the votes. Similarly, the AIADMK’s worst elections in 1996 and 2004 saw the party winning 26% and 30% votes, respectively. Third parties have never surpassed single-digit vote shares at their peak, underscoring the necessity of an alliance with either the AIADMK or the DMK for any serious political success. This reality explains why in October Vijay mentioned the possibility of power-sharing in a coalition government. However, three months later, have Vijay and the AIADMK moved closer to forming an alliance?
In the past few weeks, two major issues in the state have pointed to a potential coordination between the AIADMK, the TVK, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in opposing the DMK.
First, the Anna Varsity sexual assault case sparked a series of protests by opposition parties, with Vijay meeting the Governor, who is seen as an ideological ally of the right wing and someone antagonistic towards the DMK. This visit was timed with mass protests organised by the AIADMK and the BJP’s Tamil Nadu chief, Annamalai, who added dramatic flair by flogging himself. All these actions seemed to align with a common strategy designed to embarrass the DMK on an emotive law-and-order issue.
A Common Agenda
Soon after, the AIADMK, the TVK, and the BJP mirrored each other’s stance by boycotting the upcoming by-election for the Erode East constituency, scheduled for February 5. While the AIADMK and the BJP accused the DMK of manipulating the elections through muscle power, Vijay criticised the ruling party for making a mockery of the by-election.
It is evident that the three parties share a common agenda to unseat the DMK, but the timing and their collective stance on the sexual assault case and the by-election hint at some behind-the-scenes coordination. While this was expected, the key question remains: can this coordination mature into a formal alliance?
There are two fundamental stumbling blocks. First, who will be the lead player in such an alliance? Can the AIADMK, as the principal opposition party, accept Vijay as an equal—or at least a near-equal—in terms of seats? If not, can Vijay, with his star power, agree to play the junior partner? Second, can they incorporate the BJP into the alliance, given the realities of Tamil Nadu’s electorate?
Why AIADMK Needs New Friends
The AIADMK needs fresh energy. And, after decisively losing three successive elections—2019, 2021, and 2024—it absolutely needs to win the 2026 assembly polls. Given the formidable alliance the DMK has led in the state, which includes the Congress, left parties and other smaller groups, the AIADMK, under former Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami, knows that an alliance with Vijay could be essential to gaining momentum. From Vijay’s perspective too, going it alone could be a huge risk, potentially leading to decent vote shares but no seats. Additionally, if he contests independently and turns the election into a three-way race, he could end up splitting the anti-DMK vote, which would benefit the ruling party.
Given these dynamics, both sides may push hard to reach an agreement. It eventually may be one where the AIADMK remains the senior partner but offers a large share of seats to the TVK as it will not be able to concede too much on its dominant role. But they may have to leave the question of the Chief Ministerial face for post-poll calculations.
BJP And The DMK
Except in specific pockets, the BJP continues to be a marginal force in Tamil Nadu, facing tough realities. A large minority vote and a strong ideological, regional, and linguistic narrative centred on Dravidian politics make it difficult for the BJP to make significant inroads. Within the AIADMK, there are sizable factions wary of an alliance with it, and Actor Vijay, whose following includes many minority groups, would also be hesitant to form an open alliance with the party. In many ways, the Dravidian realities for the BJP haven’t changed much—at least not yet. However, Vijay and the AIADMK are also aware that they will need the backing of the Centre to challenge the DMK’s election machinery and the state government.
In several respects, the dominance of the DMK in Tamil Nadu is comparable to the dominance of the BJP in India. A cohesive and strategic alliance is essential to challenge it in the state, which gives all parties a strong incentive to navigate these tricky issues. It’s clear that backroom managers are working to stitch an alliance together, and if it solidifies, smaller players may also be drawn to it.
(The author is Executive Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author