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As Middle East broadly welcomes ceasefire in Israel-Hamas war, iran It finds itself in one of its weakest moments since the 1979 Islamic revolution.
tehran It has operated its self-described “axis of resistance” for several decades, supporting terrorist groups and countries affiliated with it. israel And the United States. But as Israel bombed the Gaza Strip, it also turned its attentions to top leaders of groups abroad such as Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and even top leaders of Iran’s military and its nuclear program — killing many and hampering their ability to retaliate.
as president donald trump As he prepares for a Middle East trip in which he will likely be praised by Israel and Arab countries, Iran will not be at the negotiating table as it is still struggling to recover from June’s 12-day war.
How Tehran’s theocracy responds in the coming weeks and months, whether that means retooling or reshaping its faltering economy at home, will be crucial.
“Obviously this is not a proud moment for Iran,” said Ali Waze, Iran project director for the International Crisis Group. “Its alliance system in the region is in ruins but that does not mean that the ‘axis of resistance’ is no more.”
‘Like a bankrupt gambler’
Despite the war ravaging the Gaza Strip and killing more than 67,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, Iranian state media have tried to portray the Gaza ceasefire as a victory for Hamas. Iran’s Foreign Ministry welcomed “any decision… that guarantees stopping the genocide of Palestinians”.
Perhaps more tellingly, an adviser to Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei suggested that a ceasefire would only lead to conflict elsewhere in the region.
“The beginning of a ceasefire in Gaza could be the behind-the-scenes end of ceasefires elsewhere!” Ali Akbar Velayati wrote on X, referencing Hezbollah, Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels and Iraq.
The public remains fearful of further Israeli attacks on Iran, particularly after most of its air defenses were destroyed by Israel in June. Khamenei has not resumed his usual routine of giving weekly speeches in front of audiences. Meanwhile, Iran without explanation avoided holding a major military commemoration in September marking the end of the Iran-Iraq war, which usually sees top officials parading drones and missile launchers.
Iran’s economy has also suffered due to international sanctions and falling global energy prices.
“Iran has always focused on its own interests, we no longer have the resources, our economy has weakened,” said Saeed Lilaz, a Tehran-based analyst. “Our support for Hamas was America’s response to diverting conflicts from our borders.”
Others are less optimistic.
“Iran is like a bankrupt gambler after winning some small money in the first round,” said Amir Kazemi, a university student in Tehran. “When Hamas attacked Israel, Iran was happy with it. But now, after the ceasefire, Iran has nothing in its pocket.”
the middle east looks very different
In the years immediately following Iran’s revolution, its theocratic government sought to export its Shia revolutionary ideology more widely to the Middle East. After the disastrous war with Iraq in the 1980s, this turned to an effort to provide a degree of deterrence as surrounding Arab countries purchased sophisticated American bombs, warplanes and tanks, which Tehran could not access due to sanctions.
The US military presence in the Persian Gulf also increased after the 1991 Gulf War, with Arab countries granting US military base rights due to Tehran’s continued anger.
The peak of the “axis of resistance” came in the chaotic years following the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and Yemen’s descent into civil war. Then, it can rely on Hezbollah, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, the Houthis, Iraqi terrorist groups, and even Hamas – a Sunni terrorist group.
Today, the Middle East looks very different. Rebels ousted Assad last year, with Israeli strikes killing top leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas, while Iraqi militant groups faded into the background. The Houthis, while still able to launch attacks on Israel and commercial shipping in the Red Sea corridor, now find themselves targets of increasingly precise Israeli strikes. And due to the 12-day war in June, Iran will no longer be able to enrich uranium for its nuclear program, which the West has long worried could be weaponized.
‘Decreasing regional dominance’
Meanwhile, Iran has yet to receive any major support from China or Russia, despite providing potentially concessional oil to Beijing and drones to Moscow used in its war against Ukraine. Tehran has also been reluctant to confront women who have given up their hijab or headscarf, instead carrying out executions on prisoners at a rate not seen for decades.
“The ceasefire reflects Tehran’s crumbling regional clout after the unraveling of its long-powerful ‘axis of resistance’ from 2024,” said Ali Fattollah-Nejad, director of the Berlin-based Center for the Middle East and Global Order. “The ceasefire will free up Israeli military capabilities that will now be used against Iranian interests – whether against Hezbollah in Lebanon or against Iran directly.”
For his part, Trump hailed Iran’s acceptance of the ceasefire as “terrible” news. However, no steps have been taken toward renewed public talks with Tehran over its nuclear program.
“Time is not on Iran’s side, but their problem is that no one is really giving them a way out,” Waze said. But whether Tehran will ramp up remains a question as its leaders are still debating what turn to take next.
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Associated Press writer Nasser Karimi in Tehran, Iran contributed to this report.
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Editor’s note – John Gambrell, Gulf and Iran news director for The Associated Press, has reported from every Gulf Cooperation Council country, Iran and other locations in the Middle East and the wider world since joining the AP in 2006.