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Eof Europe nato have been supportive Shaken by Russian provocations On the eastern border of the bloc in recent months, reporting a series of drone incursions And a shower of jets to shadow planes flying over the Baltic.
Concern has increased since September, when about two dozen drones crossed the border poland amid massive Russian drone attack ukraineA few days later, three Russian military jets breached Estonia. airfield For 12 minutes.
later activity near the border European countries have been forced to close airports and borders and reconsider how equipped they are to deal with foreign infiltration.
This is what analysts say Russia deliberately provoking nato To see how it reacts, gathering information that could be useful when it decides the time is right to take action against the alliance member.
interception on the baltic
poland On 30 October it said its fighters were scrambled to intercept a Russian reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea in the second such incident in a week.
Two days earlier, Polish jets had intercepted a Russian plane flying in international airspace over the Baltic without a flight plan and with its transponder turned off.
Separately, Polish airports in Radom and Lublin reopened on Thursday after being closed due to military aviation activity. Russian attacks on border facilities ukraine Polish and Allied aircraft were seen scrambling.
weather balloons in lithuania
Lithuania said on October 29 that it would continue to close border crossings. belarus By November in response to airspace disruption by smuggler balloons.
Airports in Lithuania had to be closed several times in October due to balloons filled with cigarette butts. The EU said the balloons “take place in the context of a wider targeted hybrid campaign”.
belarus‘The president called the borders a “crazy scam” and accused the West of waging a hybrid war against Belarus Russia,
Naval provocation in Denmark
Denmark accused Russian warships of repeatedly being on a collision course with Danish naval vessels and disrupting navigation systems in the strait connecting the Baltic to the North Sea in early October.
The Ministry of Defense Intelligence said on October 3 that such incidents pose a risk of unexpected escalation. The ministry said Danish ships and helicopters were targeted by tracking radar and attacked with weapons.
Drone seen over Denmark
The Danish Armed Forces reported in late September that unidentified drones had been sighted near military installations.
On 24 September, airports in Aalborg and Billund had to be closed briefly due to reports of drone activity. Copenhagen Airport also had to be closed on 22 September. The Danish Prime Minister said that Russian involvement could not be ruled out. The Kremlin described the allegations as “baseless”.
In nearby Norway, Oslo airport was also closed due to possible drone sightings.
Infiltration of fighter planes in Estonia
Three Russian military jets violated NATO member Estonia’s airspace for 12 minutes on September 19 in an “unprecedentedly brazen” intrusion, according to the government.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsakhna said this is the fourth time that Russia has violated Estonian airspace in 2025.
The Foreign Ministry said the intrusion involved three Russian MIG-31 fighter planes and took place over the Gulf of Finland. A ministry statement said the Russian charge d’affaires was summoned and given a protest note.
military exercises on nato border
Russia and Belarus held joint military exercises in Belarus between 12 and 16 September – an event with prior planning, but coinciding with heightened tensions over recent drone intrusions.
Analysts at the time noted that Russia used the exercises in 2021 to build up troop numbers before attacking Ukraine months later.
Poland, Lithuania and Latvia all increased security around the 2025 exercises, including ‘planning for the use’ of nuclear weapons.
Drone incidents in Eastern Europe
On 13 September a Russian drone violated Romanian airspace, forcing the military to ground fighter planes.
The Defense Ministry said the incident occurred during a Russian attack on Ukrainian infrastructure near the border.
Poland reported two days later that a drone was flown over the presidential palace, which it called a “provocation”. Two Belarusians were arrested.
Major drone intrusion in Poland
After months of allegations of so-called ‘hybrid’ attacks on Europe, matters reached a crescendo on 9 September when Poland reported 19 to 23 incursions into Polish airspace. NATO responded with a multinational force of jets to shoot down many of them.
Prime Minister donald tusk warned that the country was closest to armed conflict Since World War II.
While Russia has said that it did not target polandand ally of Moscow belarus Saying the drones lost their way because they were jammed, European leaders have said they are certain the intrusion was a deliberate provocation Putin,
Two days earlier, Estonia reported a Russian Mi-8 helicopter violated its airspace over the Baltic Sea.
Russia’s hybrid attacks
Russia has also targeted European countries in other ways, in what has been described as “hybrid warfare”. These include cyber attacks, acts of sabotage and disinformation campaigns.
“It has a very deep impact on European security, and there are many examples where Russia is directly interfering in elections. We saw it happen in Moldova last year, and this year before their parliamentary elections.”
Russia has been accused of interfering in the elections of European countries for years.
The UK National Cyber Security Center decided in 2022 that Russia was behind a cyber attack with Europe-wide implications just hours before the invasion of Ukraine.
While Ukraine’s military was the primary target of the attack on high-speed broadband service Viasat, wind farms and personal and commercial Internet users in Central Europe were also affected.
Disinformation campaigns in Western countries have also been linked to Russia.
“There are continued efforts to push these pro-Russian narratives that portray the West, rather than the Kremlin, as an aggressor that wants to violate Ukraine’s sovereignty and is waging this war for its own imperial ambitions,” Ms. Sesquiria said.