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When Joe Loring started running Cozy Dove pub In newcastle 11 years ago, he had to get his customers out the door at 11 p.m. so he could close on Christmas.
Now, after a year of constant financial challenges, he says he probably will closing early this yearThere are fewer punters waiting to hear the bell ring for last orders.
“We will close early because there is no one around,” he says. Independent, He further said that he thinks his sales will be down by about 20 percent compared to last year. “It’s what you would call a perfect storm,” he says. “It’s a very different landscape, and it’s always changing – all the pubs around me are saying the same thing.”
Loring is one of countless pub owners across the UK who fear this will be one of the most challenging festive seasons the industry has ever seen.
Don Hopkins, 56, who runs the Rose Inn in Norwich, said he had to deal with the “tsunami of cost rises” which has hit independent businesses hard. Like many other pub owners, she will be serving more expensive pints this Christmas, with most expecting an increase of between 30p and 50p per pint.
Hopkins, who is also vice-chairman of the Campaign for Pubs, says: “I’m hearing from people who say they’re really quiet and they’re a bit worried. Some people hope they’ll be going on Christmas Day, but they don’t know if they will.”
Data from trade bodies shows one pub will have closed its doors every day in 2025, with more than 400 closing in 2024. These closures have come amid continued conflict in the years since the pandemic, with many pub owners believing these to be counterproductive financial measures brought in by successive governments.
Alistair Scoular took over his family pub The Steam Packet Inn in 1995, but says he never knew the situation for pubs in rural Scotland was “so tough”.
“Normally in Scotland it’s quite busy around Christmas, New Year and we’ve got quite a few parties well in advance – but we certainly don’t have the same number of bookings,” he says.
“We are going to take what we can, but this will not be the golden time that will help us get through the winter. I used to depend on a certain amount of income during January and February, but this year I am not able to do that.”
Tom McEnany has been running The Oxford in Rochdale for 13 years, but he says the last 12 months have been “disappointing”. He says his pub, which employs 21 people and serves around 1,800 customers per week, is seeing a rebound in customer numbers post-Covid – but is still struggling to make a profit.
“The pubs that are still open are busier than ever – but profitability is lower than ever,” he says. “It is almost impossible to understand what we are seeing, as pubs that are busier than they have been in six years are closing shops because profitability is at an all-time low.”
He adds: “We’re going to be busy in December, and on the surface it may be considered thriving, but that’s part of the problem. It’s easy to look at a busy business and assume it’s doing well, but the reality is there’s a real problem keeping it open.”
McEnany points out that young people, who are most likely to go out and socialize at Christmas, have been particularly affected by the loss of around 89,000 jobs in the sector. He says improvements in business rates, as well as higher rates of pay for 16 to 21-year-olds, mean the region will “see the unemployment epidemic reach new highs”.
“The majority of people under 25 are people who go out and explore places in the local area, but if they don’t have part-time jobs or disposable income, they’re not investing in local businesses and the communities around them,” he explains.
He also notes that December, once considered a profitable time of year, is now merely “downpayment for January”, when he must reduce his pub’s opening hours and close for a week.
Wesley Birch, 40, who runs a catering company and two pubs in Stroud, explains Independent This is the first time he and his wife have had to forgo their salary since they started Birch Catering 15 years ago.
Birch, who runs the Ship Inn and The Old Neighborhood Inn, says that although hospitality has never been very profitable, this year he has had to “make do with no money”.
“We have really good support from the community – but the problem is there is no profit margin,” he says, adding that there are concerns that people will once again “tighten their belts” after the tax increases in this year’s Budget.
He says, “It is very important to have this much turnover this Christmas, whereas in previous years I did not even think about it. I used to make enough profit in the business to give people leave, but this year it is not possible at all.”
Chris Welch, 39, who runs the Fishnet Tavern in North Tyneside, says his pub almost closed last January, and he fears his situation will be worse this time.
“I’m scared this year. I feel like I’m personally trying to do a good job by employing five employees and creating local employment, but I’m scared of it. Every month feels like an uphill battle. I don’t even take wages,” he says.
Keir Starmer has described pubs and bars as “the heartbeat of our communities”, and said the government is “supporting them to thrive”.
But Welch says his business rates assessments are set to rise by an extra £4,000 each year after the Budget, and he calls it “outrageous”. “These are dark times for pubs and I doubt we’ll survive beyond August next year,” he says.
In Crewe, Jackie Ayling and her husband Sean believe this could be their last Christmas running Tom’s Tap and Brewhouse. The pair have already had to close Mondays and Tuesdays, and are planning to close Wednesdays and Sundays during the colder months as well.
“We can’t afford the overheads that come with opening a pub for one session in the colder months when our customers are less likely to come out,” says Jacqui.
This Christmas, the pair had to think hard about bringing people over – seeing a huge drop in the number of Christmas parties being booked.
“We were doing maybe one or two a week, eight or so in December – but not even one this year,” she says. “Companies are also cutting back, so they can no longer afford staff parties. This has had a far-reaching impact.”
Fiona Hornsby, 45, runs three pubs in Liverpool and is struggling to attract customers at Christmas. “We’re also decorating the outside this year, so we’re putting up a few more decorations so people can see you,” she says. “You have to be everywhere now…it’s getting harder.”
Gary Timmins, pubs and clubs campaigns director at CAMRA, says the extra customer numbers during the festive period are “significant” and help businesses look after the quieter months at the start of the year. But he adds: “The government also needs to play its part in reducing costs and giving our locals a fighting chance by making business rates, VAT and beer duty systems fairer. Otherwise, we risk losing more pubs forever.”
Business Minister Kate Dearden said: “Pubs are an essential part of our communities and vital to our economy. They require hard work and dedication to run. We know pubs need our support, and we’ve already started that work by capping business rates at 15 per cent for most properties, when they faced a 45 per cent rise.
“We’re cutting red tape so more pubs can offer al fresco dining, and putting more funding in place to support rural pubs. In the Budget, we decided to ask online giants and the wealthiest properties to pay more, so local pubs and communities get the support they deserve.”