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Doubt on two intelligence services of NATO nation Russia is developing a new anti-satellite weapon to target Elon Musk’s Starlink constellation with destructive orbiting clouds of shrapnel, with the aim of curbing Western space superiority, helping ukraine On the battlefield.
Intelligence findings seen by The Associated Press said so-called “zone-effect” weapons would seek to fill Starlink orbits with hundreds of thousands of high-density pellets, potentially disabling multiple satellites at once, but also risking devastating collateral damage to other orbiting systems.
Analysts who have not seen the findings say they doubt such a weapon could work without causing uncontrolled chaos in space for companies and countries, including Russia and its allies. ChinaWhich depend on thousands of orbiting satellites for communication, defense and other vital needs.
Such consequences, including risks to its own space systems, can be controlled moscow Analysts said refrain from deploying or using such weapons.
“I don’t buy it. Like, I really don’t buy,” said Victoria Samson, a space-security expert at the Secure World Foundation who leads the Colorado-based non-governmental organization’s annual study of anti-satellite systems. “Frankly, I would be very surprised if they did something like that.”
But the commander of the Canadian Forces Space Division, Brig. General Christopher Horner said such Russian work could not be ruled out in light of previous US allegations that Russia was also indiscriminately pursuing nuclear, space-based weapons.
He said, “I can’t say I’ve been briefed on that type of system. But it’s not unbelievable.” “If the reporting on the nuclear weapons system is accurate and they are willing to develop it and go to that end, it would not be shocking to me to find something slightly less than that, but equally damaging, within the scope of their development.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov did not respond to AP messages seeking comment. Russia has previously called on the United Nations for efforts to prevent orbital deployment of weapons and President Vladimir Putin has said Moscow has no intention of deploying nuclear space weapons.
The weapon will have multiple targets
The intelligence findings were shown to the AP on the condition that the services involved were not identified and the news organization was not able to independently verify the findings.
The US Space Force did not respond to e-mailed questions. French Army space command A statement to the AP said it could not comment on the findings, but said, “We can inform you that Russia, in recent years, has been escalating irresponsible, dangerous and even hostile actions in space.”
The findings indicate that Russia in particular views Starlink as a serious threat. Thousands of low-orbiting satellites have been vital to Ukraine’s survival against a full-scale invasion by Russia in the fourth year.
Starlink’s high-speed Internet service is used by Ukrainian forces for battlefield communications, weapons targeting and other roles, and by civilians and government officials where Russian attacks have affected communications.
Russian officials have repeatedly warned that commercial satellites serving Ukraine’s military could be legitimate targets. This month, Russia said it had deployed a new ground-based missile system, the S-500, capable of striking low-orbit targets.
Unlike a missile that Russia tested in 2021 to destroy an inactive Cold War-era satellite, the new weapon in development would target multiple Starlinks at once, possibly with shrapnel fired by yet-to-be-launched formations of smaller satellites, the intelligence findings said.
Canada’s Horner said it was hard to see how clouds of shrapnel could be conjured up simply to attack Starlink and that the debris from such an attack could “quickly get out of control.”
“You blow up a box full of BBs,” he said. Doing so “would cover the entire orbital regime and take out every Starlink satellite and every other satellite that is in the same regime. And I think that’s the part that’s incredibly troubling.”
The system is probably only experimental
The findings seen by AP do not say when Russia might be able to deploy such a system nor whether it has been tested or how far along the research is believed to be.
The system is in active development and is too sensitive to share information about the timing of expected deployment, according to an official familiar with the findings and other related intelligence, which the AP did not see. The official discussed the non-public findings on condition of anonymity.
This kind of Russian research can only be experimental, Samson said.
She said, “I wouldn’t put it before some scientists … to create something like this because it’s an interesting thought-experiment and they think, you know, ‘Maybe at some point we can get our government to pay for this.’
Samson suggested that the specter of a perceived new Russian threat may also be an attempt to elicit an international response.
He said, “Often the people pushing these ideas are doing so because they want the American side to build something like this or … justify increased spending on counterspace capabilities or use it to push for a more hawkish approach on Russia.”
“I’m not saying that’s what’s happening with this,” Samson said. “But people have been seen to take these crazy arguments and use them.”
Small shrapnel cannot be detected
The intelligence findings said the shrapnel would be so small – just millimeters across – that they would escape detection by ground- and space-based systems that scan space objects, making it difficult to blame any attack on Moscow.
Clayton Swope, an expert in space security and weapons at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C.-based security and policy think tank, said that if “shrapnel is not trackable, that complicates things” but “people will figure it out.”
He said, “If satellites start getting destroyed with damage, I think you can put two and two together.”
It is unclear how much destruction small shells can actually cause. In November, the suspected impact of a small piece of debris was enough to damage a Chinese spacecraft that was supposed to return three astronauts to Earth.
“The most damage will probably be to the solar panels because they are probably the most fragile part of the satellites,” Swope said. “However, this would be enough to damage a satellite and possibly bring it offline.”
‘Weapons of fear’ may threaten anarchy
Analysts say that after such an attack, shrapnel and debris would fall back toward Earth over time, possibly damaging other orbiting systems on the way down.
Starlink orbits about 550 kilometers (340 mi) above the planet. According to Swope, China’s Tiangong Space Station and the International Space Station operate in lower orbits, “so both will face risks.”
The space chaos caused by such a weapon could enable Moscow to threaten its adversaries without actually using it, Swope said.
“It definitely seems like a weapon of fear, looking for some kind of containment or something,” he said.
Samson said that indiscriminate gun-fire reductions could divert Russia from such a path.
He said, “You know, they have invested an enormous amount of time, money and manpower in becoming a space power.”
“Using such a weapon would also effectively reduce the space for them,” Samson said. “I don’t know that they would be willing to sacrifice that much.”
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Emma Burrows in London contributed to this report.