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In November, a train carrying about 500 people stopped suddenly in Eastern polandA broken overhead line had broken several windows, and the track ahead was damaged, Elsewhere on the line, an explosive was detonated beneath a passing freight train,
No one was hurt in either case and damage was limited, but Poland, which blamed the attack on Russian intelligence services, responded forcefully: it deployed 10,000 troops to protect critical infrastructure.
The sabotage is one of 145 incidents in Poland associated Press Western officials say the database is part of a campaign of disinformation across Europe RussiaOfficials say the campaign comes after President Vladimir Putin attacked ukraine In 2022 – It aims to deprive Kiev of support, create division among Europeans and identify the continent’s security vulnerabilities.
So far in this hybrid war, most known acts of sabotage have resulted in minimal damage – nothing compared to the thousands of lives lost and cities destroyed across Ukraine.
But officials say each act — from vandalism of monuments to cyberattacks to warehouse fires — wastes valuable security resources. The head of a major European intelligence service has said that investigating Russian interference now consumes as much of the agency’s time as terrorism.
Officials say that although the operation imposes a heavy burden on European security services, it comes at no cost to Russia. that’s because moscow Waging cross-border operations that require European countries to cooperate extensively in investigations – while often using foreigners with criminal backgrounds as cheap proxies for Russian intelligence operatives. This means that Moscow achieves victory only by pooling resources – even when the conspiracy does not succeed.
“There is a 24/7 operation between all services to stop this,” said a senior European intelligence official, who, like the head of a European intelligence service and other officials who spoke to the AP, insisted on anonymity to discuss sensitive security matters.
Over the course of the year, the AP spoke to more than 40 European and NATO officials from 13 countries to document the scope of this hybrid war, including on its map only those incidents when Western officials linked them to Russia, its proxy or its ally Belarus.
Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the AP that Russia had “no connection” to the campaign.
AP’s map tracks Russian subversion and disruption
The AP’s database shows that arson and explosives plots are expected to increase from one in 2023 to 26 in 2024. Six have been documented so far in 2025. Meanwhile, three vandalism cases were registered last year, and one case was registered this year.
The data is incomplete because not all incidents have been made public, and it could take several months for authorities to establish links to Moscow. But the spike matches warnings from officials: The campaign is becoming more dangerous.
According to the map, the countries most frequently targeted are those that border Russia: Poland and Estonia. Several incidents have also occurred in Latvia, Britain, Germany and France. All are major supporters of Ukraine.
The European official, a senior Baltic intelligence official and another intelligence official said the campaign largely calmed down between late 2024 and early this year. Their analysis showed that Moscow likely halted the campaign to curry favor with the new administration of US President Donald Trump. It has since resumed at full speed.
“They are back in business,” the European official said.
Multinational plots deplete resources
Authorities say Yevgeny Ivanov was behind the attack on a Polish railway supplying Ukraine – a Ukrainian convicted of working with Russian military intelligence to plot arson attacks on home improvement stores, a cafe and a drone factory in Ukraine, according to court documents.
According to the Security Service of Ukraine, Ivanov, who left Poland after the attack, worked for Yuri Sizov, an officer in Russia’s GRU military intelligence service.
Polish Interior Minister Marcin Kierwiński said that Ivanov was convicted in Ukraine in absentia, but he managed to enter Poland because Ukraine had not informed Polish authorities about his conviction. The Security Service of Ukraine said it cooperates closely with allies.
According to Estonian state prosecutor Triinu Olaev-Aas, such a conspiracy involving criminals from multiple countries or who have crossed the border drains investigative resources from many authorities across Europe – one of Moscow’s key targets.
Over the past year, he said the profile of attackers in Estonia has changed from locals well known to law enforcement to unknown foreigners. This requires increased cooperation among countries to foil conspiracies or detain criminals.
Olave-Aas said that for two attacks in January – a supermarket and a Ukrainian restaurant were set on fire – the people hired had never been to Estonia before.
In the restaurant, a Moldovan man broke a window, threw a can of gasoline and set it on fire. In the video, his hand is seen on fire while running.
The man and his partner fled to Latvia, Lithuania and Poland before being captured in Italy.
turning to criminals
While Russian intelligence officers may mastermind such operations, they often rely on recruiters — often convicted or with criminal connections — who assign tasks to saboteurs on the ground, the Baltic official said.
Outsourcing people with criminal backgrounds like Ivanov means Russia won’t have to put highly trained intelligence operatives at risk — agents Moscow often has no recourse to as European countries have forced out many spies as relations have deteriorated in recent years.
Russian criminal networks offer a ready alternative, the Baltic official said.
For example, the man accused of coordinating a plot to plant explosives in packages on cargo planes was recruited by Russian intelligence after being involved in smuggling guns and explosives, the European official said. The man has been linked to at least four other conspiracies.
Others are recruited from European prisons or soon after release, the Baltic official said.
In one case, Latvia’s Occupation Museum, dedicated to the Soviet Union’s occupation of the country, was set on fire by someone released from prison last month.
More tension, more cooperation
Even plots that are foiled are victories for Moscow because they test security and drain resources.
In 2024, a Ukrainian man, acting on orders of Russian military intelligence, dug up a cache of items buried in a cemetery in Lithuania, including drone parts and corn boxes filled with explosives.
Authorities believe the plan was to detonate the drone with explosives. Jacek Dobrzynski, a spokesman for Poland’s security minister, said the plot was ultimately foiled – but not before considerable resources were used to track down everyone involved.
The sheer number of plots is overwhelming some law enforcement agencies, but Moscow’s campaign has also fostered greater cooperation, the European official said.
Martins Jansons, a special prosecutor in Latvia, said prosecutors in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have created joint investigative teams for attacks organized by foreign intelligence services.
In the UK, front-line police officers are being trained to spot suspicious incidents that may be state-backed, the commander said. Dominic Murphy, head of the counter-terrorism squad in the Metropolitan Police.
He said a trainee detective had reported an arson attack on a London warehouse after he learned the business was owned by Ukrainians and contained communications equipment used by the military. Police determined that the attack was organized by Russian intelligence.
But officials warn that Russia is constantly testing new methods.
Smugglers in Russia’s ally Belarus have sent hundreds of weather balloons filled with cigarettes into Lithuania and Poland, causing repeated closures of the Lithuanian capital’s airport in what authorities have called a hybrid attack.
“Nowadays they only carry cigarettes,” Dobrzynski warned, “but in the future they may carry other things too.”
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Associated Press writers John Leicester in Paris, Claudia Ciobanu in Warsaw, Poland and Volodymyr Yurchuk in Kiev, Ukraine contributed.