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global temperature According to the , 2026 is predicted to remain worryingly high, at more than 1.4C above pre-industrial levels for the fourth year in a row. weather office,
UKThe U.S. National Weather Service, in its annual outlook, projects that 2026 will reach an estimated 1.46C above the 1850–1900 baseline, indicating a sustained “warming surge”.
Although this figure is below the record 1.55C seen in 2024, it will still rank 2026 among the four hottest years ever recorded.
Last year, 2024, the key 1.5C limit – a key target of the Paris Agreement to prevent the most severe climate impacts – was breached for the first time.
There remains a possibility that 2026 may cross this important limit as well.
Professor Adam Scaife, who leads the team behind the Met Office’s global forecast for 2026, said: “We are likely to exceed 1.4C over the past three years and we expect 2026 to be the fourth consecutive year to do so.
“Prior to this surge, previous global warming had not exceeded 1.3C.”
The forecast puts average global temperatures between 1.34C and 1.58C, with 1.46C as the central estimate, above the 1850-1900 baseline before large-scale fossil fuel burning.
Dr Nick Dunstone of the Met Office, who led the production of the forecast, said: “2024 saw the first temporary increase of 1.5C, and our forecast for 2026 suggests this is possible again.
“This highlights how fast we are now approaching the 1.5C Paris Agreement target.”
In the Paris Climate Treaty held in 2015, countries committed to curb global warming Continue efforts to limit the rise to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and to 1.5C to avoid the worst impacts of rising sea levels, drought, floods, heatwaves and extreme storms. Climate change,
Scientists have repeatedly warned about the increasingly serious impacts of higher temperature increases and the shrinking capacity of people and nature to adapt to changes, with every fraction of a degree making a difference in avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.
But the United Nations has warned World Current policies are still on track for 2.8C of warming, or around 2.3C to 2.5C if all pledges made by countries are met.
Earlier this year, the World Meteorological Organization estimated that the current level of global warming, excluding temperature fluctuations between years, is 1.37C higher than the average for the period 1850-1900.