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It’s been almost four years since Russia went to full-scale war ukraine, European Union The leaders have committed to funding Kiev’s economic and military needs for the next two years, in some way or another. Ukraine is desperate and needs money by early 2026.
At a summit next week, the 27 EU leaders will consider whether to use billions of dollars in Russian assets frozen in Europe to help meet Ukraine’s needs, which the International Monetary Fund puts at 135 billion euros ($157 billion).
Such a step has never been taken before and comes with risks. The European Central Bank has warned that if Europeans appear willing to grab other countries’ money, it could undermine confidence in the euro currency. Some member countries are also worried about retaliatory action from Russia.
belgiumWhere most of the assets are held is the main competitor of the scheme. There are fears that Russia will retaliate, either through the courts or through more nefarious means. A series of drone incidents near airports and military bases last month suggested the Kremlin was already doing this, but those responsible were never publicly identified.
European Council President Antonio Costa, who will chair the December 18 summit, has insisted that leaders should not leave EU headquarters brussels Until they reach a decision.
Two options await debate
In February 2022, EU leaders seized most of the Russian Central Bank’s assets during the war launched by Putin. Moscow has described the plan as “theft”.
Two plans have come forward. The first would be a “compensation loan” that would use Russian assets until Moscow agrees to pay for damages caused to Ukraine. Few people think Russian President Vladimir Putin will ever agree to pay compensation.
Plan B would be for the EU to borrow money from financial markets, just as the bloc did to finance a massive debt plan to revive European economies after the coronavirus pandemic.
Many of Europe’s major economies are facing cash shortages and debt. But Russia’s war on Ukraine poses a threat to the group’s existence. Intelligence assessments suggest that if Putin defeats Ukraine he could start a war elsewhere within three to five years.
The assets potentially create a large store of cash ready for use.
The European Commission, the EU’s executive branch, estimates there are currently 210 billion euros ($244 billion) worth of frozen assets held in Europe. The vast majority – about 193 billion euros ($225 billion) at the end of September – is held in Belgium’s financial clearinghouse known as Euroclear.
It also has political benefits. If the EU wants to use the assets, only a “qualified majority” of countries – about a two-thirds majority – will be needed for the green light. Borrowing on the financial markets would have to be supported by all, meaning a single no vote would kill the idea.
Over the past year, Hungary has blocked EU support for Ukraine at almost every turn. The government in Slovakia is also trying its best. A new and intensely nationalist leader in the Czech Republic could further complicate the decision.
Avoiding the veto is in the interests of most member states.
Compensation Loan Details
Unveiling her plan on December 4, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU would cover two-thirds of Ukraine’s needs for 2026 and 2027, for a total of 90 billion euros ($105 billion). International partners will fill this gap.
Due to EU sanctions on Russian assets, cash balances have been frozen in Euroclear. Euroclear says they have generated about 3.9 billion euros ($4.5 billion) of interest this year – which is already being used to fund the Group of Seven’s loan scheme for Ukraine.
Under the new scheme, some of the cash will be transferred into an EU debt instrument. Ukraine will owe the EU money, but will pay only if the bloc’s sanctions are lifted and Russia agrees to pay war reparations.
The Commission emphasizes that there is no “theft”, as Russia has claimed, as the Russian Central Bank’s right to claim its money and Euroclear’s duty to repay remain intact.
Once Putin pays the war reparations, Ukraine will pay the EU, the EU will pay Euroclear, and Euroclear will pay the Russian Central Bank.
Belgian protest
Importantly for Belgium, the plan includes safeguards to ensure that risks will be shared by its partners. Other European countries will offer to guarantee the loan if something goes wrong. Germany has already indicated that it will do so.
But the Belgian government is not convinced. Even before the Commission’s compensation loan plan was made public, Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot said it involved “consequential economic, financial and legal risks.”
Prevot said Belgium – a strong supporter of Ukraine that has provided military and financial support – feels its concerns are not being heard by its EU partners.
He said, “We are not trying to anger our partners or Ukraine. We are simply trying to avoid potentially disastrous consequences for a member state that is being asked to show solidarity without offering similar solidarity in return.”
In an interview with Belgian public broadcaster RTBF last week, Euroclear CEO Valéry Urbain also said that court action could not be ruled out to force the clearinghouse to transfer its Russian assets to the EU.