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Japan may consider another increase in bear attacks in the near future, Crops of a type of nut loved by animals could dwindle in 2027, researchers warn after a new survey.
Beechnuts are an important source of food for Asian black bears in autumn, and their depletion causes the animals to regularly migrate to cities and farms.
While 2026 was expected to yield a bumper crop, a long-observed tendency to see good and bad years alternating meant that failure was likely in 2027, according to the study by the Akita Prefecture Forestry Research and Training Center.
This year’s crop was classified as “extremely poor” in five survey areas in Akita Prefecture, with less than 49 healthy nuts per square meter, well below the 200-nut threshold used to define a good harvest.
According to Japanese media, an Environment Ministry assessment in November reported equally poor conditions in Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi and Yamagata prefectures, indicating a widespread failure in the Tohoku region.
Poor walnut harvests are closely linked to an increase in bear attacks in Japan. Akita recorded the highest number of bear attacks in Japan this year, with 66 injured and four killed between April and November.
When crops were strong in 2022 and 2024, only six and 10 people were attacked. But when crops were destroyed in 2023 and 2025, the attacks increased to more than 70 and 60 respectively.
A sharp increase in attacks this year led national and local authorities to take emergency measures.
Last week a 69-year-old security guard was injured in his leg fighting a bear He was attacked in a public toilet in Gunma.
last month, Army deployed Akitas were dispatched in a rare move to assist in trapping operations after local authorities said they were overwhelmed.
The Japanese government also modified long-standing rules to allow riot police to shoot bears in certain circumstances, a power previously limited to licensed hunters.
The surge in animal encounters is also linked to deeper structural problems. The loss of rural populations has left abandoned houses and large gardens on the edges of many towns, creating easy corridors for bears to wander into settlements.
In the Kitakita area of Akita, people have recently described bears wandering into vacant properties. Some elderly villagers now take the bells outside to avoid startling animals.
Many experts warn that even with an improved harvest next year, the long-term increase in bear numbers, thought to have tripled since 2012, means communities are at extreme risk.
As the world continues to warm due to the climate crisis, warmer autumn temperatures and changing food patterns are altering the hibernation timing of animals like bears, contributing to late season encounters.
Local governments are urging residents to pluck fruit from trees near homes, secure garbage and report sightings immediately.