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heyn Monday, Rep. Jasmine Crockett shook up texas politics When he filed for the Democratic nomination for one of two Lone Star State seats in the U.S. Senate.
Almost immediately, everyone in Washington could hear the clang of Texas Republicans’ boot-heels.
Jennifer DeCasper, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, tweeted that Crockett was the NRSC’s “#1 recruit.” Indeed, the committee conducted a poll in July that showed its leading Democrat, Colin Allred, announced on Monday that he would drop out of the race for his old House seat.
Crockett has become a darling of the “No Kings” protest-marching liberals, who enjoy her comments against Republicans, such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s “bleach blonde bad shape butch body” and Rep. Nancy Mace after “the kid.” Mace made transphobic comments,
But Crockett has gotten himself into trouble in recent months with the same sharp tongue that allows him to rake in large amounts of cash.
Earlier this year, she came under fire for calling out Texas Governor Greg Abbott – who is disabled and uses a wheelchair.Governor Hot WheelsHe also recently spoke in the House and said that Environmental Protection Agency Director Lee Zeldin had received money from Jeffrey Epstein when Zeldin served in Congress from New York, but This was a man not related to the late convicted sex offender,
Now Crockett is set to clash with state Assemblyman James Tallarico. But some Democrats fear Crockett could cost them their best chance to create a 50-50 Senate in 2026.
“I think Jasmine Crockett is a fire brand, someone who understands what it takes to reach people in the modern age,” said former Texas Democratic Party executive committee member Micah Irfan. Independent,
He said any Democrat would need to win over Republicans and independents who would not otherwise vote Democrat. Instead, Crockett seems focused solely on hammering home her anti-Trump messages. His announcement video included soundbites critical of Trump, a bold move for a Democrat in a state where Trump won by double digits.
“With the electoral mathematics that we have, we have to win over, as I said, a group of voters that are currently voting for Republicans or have voted for Republicans in the past,” Irfan said. “And that means you have to win over these Latinos. That means you probably have to win over some Christians, right? Some liberals and independents.”
Speaking of Christ, make no mistake: Democrats would need an act of God to flip the Texas Senate seat under normal circumstances. He has not won a statewide race there since 1994 and has not won a Senate race since 1988.
From time to time, Democrats see a ray of hope. In 2008, Barack Obama flipped Harris County, leading Democrats to think they might one day contend in the state. This proved foolish and the Democrats lost in 2014.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton came within 10 points of Texas and won three congressional districts. This opened the door for Beto O’Rourke to get within striking distance against Ted Cruz, who edged Allred and Liz Fletcher to flip two House seats in 2018. In 2020, Democrats came within 5.5 points of winning Texas, but they fell in the Rio Grande Valley, serving as a harbinger of Trump’s flipping the predominantly Hispanic area in 2024.
“I would say the path to victory in Texas is to make Assad’s difference with Hispanics,” Irfan said. “I think the idea right now is that the Trump administration’s policies with respect to ICE and deportation are going to cost us the Hispanic vote. I think it will to some extent, but we don’t just need 75% of the vote. We need 89% of the vote to close the gap that Republicans are getting with white Texans.”
That being said, Democrats don’t have many options for taking back the Senate. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, meaning Democrats would have to flip three seats to tie and force JD Vance to rack up a bunch of votes like Kamala Harris.
Only one Republican comes from a state that voted for Harris: Sen. Susan Collins and a contentious primary between Gov. Janet Mills and progressive favorite Graham Platner makes it far from a guaranteed turnaround. His next best chance for a turnaround is North Carolina, where former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, who won the state twice in the year Trump won it, is running for the seat of retiring Senator Thom Tillis.
Still, Democrats have a golden opportunity, as Republicans face a primary challenger. Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas) is running for re-election against state Attorney General Ken Paxton, who was impeached by the Republican state legislature before the state Senate acquitted him. His wife Angela, a state senator, announced that she would divorce Paxton “on Biblical grounds”, given Paxton’s numerous affairs.
Matt Engle, founder of the liberal Lone Star Policy Project, told Independent That race will be a dogfight.
“Ken Paxton is going to win that primary, he’s going to nominate a criminal,” Angle said. “John Cornyn is a dead senator running around in Texas with his Republican brand having been extinct here for a while now, yes, and he’s pretending to be, like, his kind of MAGA.”
It will still be a lift for them. Angle said the eternal question for Democrats is whether to persuade or build a coalition.
“And so the question is whether the challenge is for Jasmine or for James Talarico, whoever the nominee is, because remember, Jasmine is not the nominee, and James Talarico is a very strong candidate,” he said. “They have to not only expand the base, but also build the coalition you need in Texas.”
Ultimately, if the primary becomes a race between Crockett and Paxton, which is a real possibility, the race could come down to whom voters dislike less. Someone like Paxton may have enough power to turn away some voters. But even in a swing year, a firebrand like Crockett could force voters who might otherwise consider voting for a Democrat to stay away.