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India’s population may stagnate in the coming years as the fertility rate will continue to fall below the replacement level required to maintain population growth.
It is estimated that the total fertility rate (TFR) of many states will fall below the replacement mark of 2.1 – the level at which a country can maintain its population without migration.
according to Population projections for India and states 2011-2036 According to the report by the Government’s Technical Group on Population Projections (TGPP), India’s overall TFR is expected to fall to 1.73 during 2031-2035.
Several states – including Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Telangana as well as the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir and the National Capital Territory of Delhi – are projected to record a TFR of 1.50 by 2035. This indicates a transition towards population aging due to a decline in births per woman.
What is TFR?
The World Health Organization (WHO) defines total fertility rate as the average number of children a hypothetical group of women would have in their reproductive years if they experienced a certain period of fertility and were not subject to mortality.
The normal reproductive period is considered to be the age of 15 to 49 years. TFR is a key indicator used to assess population health and replacement level. This is expressed as children per woman – not per couple or per family.
States projected to see decline in fertility rates
TFR is expected to fall below replacement level of 2.1 by 2035 in almost all states. The report presented in July 2020 showed further continued decline. During 2011–2015, India’s TFR was 2.37.
Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu are projected to record TFR of 1.51, while Karnataka and Uttarakhand are expected to reach 1.6.
The TFR in the North-Eastern states (except Assam) is estimated to be 1.61 by 2035. Assam is expected to be slightly higher at 1.83.
At 2.38 children per woman by 2035, Bihar will be the only state with a TFR above replacement level, the report said.
Table showing projected levels of TFR for India and states (2011-2035)
| India / State / Union Territory | 2011-15 | 2021–25 | 2031-35 |
| Andhra Pradesh | 1.68 | 1.54 | 1.5 |
| Himachal Pradesh | 1.71 | 1.54 | 1.5 |
| Punjab | 1.7 | 1.54 | 1.5 |
| Telangana | 1.68 | 1.54 | 1.5 |
| west bengal | 1.7 | 1.51 | 1.5 |
| Jammu and Kashmir (UT) | 1.93 | 1.52 | 1.5 |
| National Capital Territory of Delhi (UT) | 1.8 | 1.53 | 1.5 |
| Maharashtra | 1.77 | 1.56 | 1.51 |
| Tamil Nadu | 1.68 | 1.54 | 1.51 |
| Karnataka | 1.86 | 1.64 | 1.6 |
| Uttarakhand | 1.95 | 1.65 | 1.6 |
| North Eastern States (except Assam) | , | 1.65 | 1.61 |
| Odisha | 2.1 | 1.81 | 1.71 |
| Haryana | 2.26 | 1.86 | 1.72 |
| Kerala | 1.82 | 1.79 | 1.8 |
| Gujarat | 2.3 | 2.02 | 1.82 |
| Assam | 2.34 | 2 | 1.83 |
| Chattisgarh | 2.62 | 2.05 | 1.83 |
| Uttar Pradesh | 3.3 | 2.28 | 1.85 |
| Jharkhand | 2.78 | 2.17 | 1.87 |
| Rajasthan | 2.95 | 2.2 | 1.87 |
| Madhya Pradesh | 3.03 | 2.34 | 1.96 |
| Bihar | 3.81 | 2.92 | 2.38 |
| India (National) | 2.37 | 1.94 | 1.73 |
Source: Population Projections for India and States 2011-2036 Report
Due to decline in population and fertility rate
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) State of World Population 2025 report, title real fertility crisisOutlines a number of health, economic and socio-environmental factors that have led people to have – or are likely to have – fewer children.
According to the report’s survey, 13% of Indians cited infertility or difficulty conceiving as the reason for having fewer children, while 14% pointed to barriers to fertility or access to pregnancy-related medical care. Another 15% cited poor general health or chronic diseases.
Financial pressures also play a major role: 38% of Indians pointed to economic constraints, and 21% cited unemployment or job insecurity. A lack of adequate or quality childcare options and housing barriers – such as limited space or high prices and rents – were cited by 18% and 22% respectively.
About 19% reported that they are having fewer children because their partners prefer a smaller family, while 17% said they themselves have changed their mind and opted for fewer children. Future uncertainties, including climate change and political instability (war, pandemic, etc.) were cited by 16% and 14% of respondents, respectively.