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Black Friday is no longer the retail sale of yesteryear, when the promise of one-off bargains led people to leave the Thanksgiving table and head to the mall, where some customers clashed over toys. TVSBut there are still enough people enthusiastic about the event to make it the biggest shopping day in America
For that reason, this day retains its crown as the official start of the holiday shopping season. The year has begun as companies grapple with an uncertain economic environment and presidential instability. donald trump Comprehensive tariffs on imported goods.
Many have absorbed some of the costs and pulled out of hiring rather than raising prices for customers. Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy fell this month to its lowest level since April, according to a report released Tuesday by the Conference Board — when Trump announced his tariffs following a government shutdown, weak hiring and stubborn inflation.
Still, buyers remain flexible and willing to spend, at least given the solid quarterly sales report. wal-martBest Buy and other retailers. But many retail executives also say customers are focusing on deals and have been selective in what they buy.
Aaron Boxer, 50, from Greenwich, connecticutSaid he delayed buying a car this year because of concerns about tariffs. He said he’ll be on the lookout for deals on toys on Cyber Monday, but is also willing to wait until the end for the best discounts.
“The tariffs are definitely not behind me, and I’m concerned about that,” said the founder of an educational services company and a life coaching service. “I considered making a purchase earlier this year, but I feel like some people made some very poor business decisions by anticipating that the tariffs would have a greater impact than they actually did.”
Still, analysts and mall executives cited solid momentum heading into Black Friday week.
“We’re seeing a very positive start to the holiday season,” said Jill Renslow, chief business development and marketing officer for Mall of America in Bloomington. minnesotaWhich plans to give away gift cards and other goodies to the first 250 customers who arrive at 7 a.m. on Friday. “The last few Saturdays in November have been very strong.”
Mall traffic on Black Friday surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 numbers, Renslow said.
A forecast from the National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, predicts healthy growth in holiday sales. The group estimates shoppers will collectively spend between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion in November and December, or 3.7% to 4.2% more than last year.
The group said retailers reported $976 billion in holiday sales last year, or a 4.3% increase from 2023.
MasterCard SpendingPulse, which tracks spending across all payment methods, including cash, predicts a 3.6% increase in holiday sales from November 1 to December 24. This compares with an increase of 4.1% last year.
“Clearly, there is uncertainty,” said Michel Mayer, chief economist at MasterCard. “Clearly, consumers are feeling frustrated. But right now, it doesn’t seem like there’s going to be any change in the way they look this season.”
Online sales have been strong so far. Consumers spent $79.7 billion from Nov. 1 through Sunday, according to Adobe Analytics. That represents a 7.5% gain from a year earlier and was larger than Adobe’s 5.3% growth forecast for the season.
Tariffs have played a role in stores’ sales and pricing strategies. Many retailers ramped up shipments of some holiday merchandise before the tariffs took effect, absorbing some of the additional import costs as well. But stores still incur some expense for items like toys, which are largely sourced in China.
Market research firm Circana’s retail tracking service examined various subcategories of general merchandise and found that 40% of all general merchandise sold in September saw a price increase of at least 5% compared to the first four months of the year.
Toys, baby products, household goods, and team sports equipment were most affected. For example, 83% of toys sold in September saw an increase of at least 5%, Circana said.
That number was up 32% in June and will grow even higher in the coming months, according to Marshall Cohen, the company’s chief industry advisor.
Some executives have noticed that retailers are advertising discounts on holidays. Mall of America’s Renslow said deals at the mall did not appear as quickly as he expected. But he estimates store tenants have stepped up this week with discounts ranging from 30% to 50%. She thinks they’ll probably go deeper over the weekend.
Stephen Lebowitz, CEO of CBL Properties, which operates 85 shopping properties, also noted ineffective holiday discounts.
“I think one benefit of the tariffs or the silver lining is that inventory levels are lower for retailers, and they’ve tried to allow themselves to maintain pricing power,” he said.