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India’s total merchandise exports grew 2.9% to $220 billion during April-September 2025, compared to $214 billion in the year-ago period, the report said.
Cumulative exports to the US also registered a 13% growth in the April-September period to $45 billion from $40 billion in the year-ago period. Although there may be some front-loading effects, the September data showed a negative growth of about 12% year-on-year, said SBI’s research report ‘Ecowrap’.
The report further said that the US share in India’s exports is on the decline from July 2025 to 15% in September, mainly due to decline in exports of marine products, precious and semi-precious stones, finished cotton garments and cotton textiles.
Also read: How the stalled US-India trade deal is reshaping the future of Indian exports
“Interestingly, the share of India’s merchandise exports to other countries has increased significantly during this period, indicating the diversification of our export basket with UAE, China, Vietnam, Japan and Hong Kong, along with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nigeria also among the top destinations (over FY25) across various product categories,” the report said.
“So, could it be that some destinations are exporting more to the United States after buying from India?” It said.
According to the report, Australia’s share in US imports of pearls, precious, semi-precious stones has increased to 9% YTD in January-August 2025 from 2% during the same period last year.
Hong Kong also recorded a 1% to 2% increase in share relative to the US during the same period.
The SBI research report further said that the uptick in trade talks confirms India’s willingness to come out of the highest (among Asian peers) tariff structure while enhancing capacity building in multiple loops with recently concluded LPG deals and strategic defense deals last month, thereby increasing reasonable chances of mutually cordial, fruitful negotiations.
The report said the tariffs have hit India’s labor-intensive sectors like textiles, jewelery and seafood, especially shrimp, which operate at low margins.
Government has approved to support exporters Rs 45,060 crore including Credit guarantee of Rs 20,000 crore on bank loans.
It aims to enhance the global competitiveness of Indian exporters and support diversification into new and emerging markets.
The report said credit access under CGTMSE will strengthen liquidity while also ensuring smooth trade operations as container volumes of shipments to the US have fallen sharply due to tariffs.