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New Delhi, Nov 14 (IANS) In a landslide election result that cemented the National Democratic Alliance’s strong hold in Bihar, the ruling alliance has won a massive majority, smashing the majority mark of 122.
Led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), the Bharatiya Janata Party’s landslide victory has boosted the NDA’s tally.
Voter turnout increased to 67.14 percent, up nearly 10 percentage points from 2020, indicating strong participation amid a high level of campaigning.
In sharp contrast, the opposition grand alliance comprising Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress and Left parties was wiped out.
The alliance’s pivot RJD got less than 40 seats, while the Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist–Leninist) Liberation suffered heavy defeats.
The NDA’s 47.2 per cent vote share dwarfed the grand alliance’s steady 37.3 per cent, a marginal increase from 37.23 per cent in 2020, showing how vote efficiency and consolidation propelled the incumbent to victory while fragmenting the opposition base.
This analysis sheds light on the subtle dynamics behind the electoral disaster of the Grand Alliance, based on data from Election Commission of India trends, coalition arithmetic and expert analyses.
The debacle stemmed from a toxic mix of internal weaknesses, strategic blunders and the NDA’s deft counter-action, which turned anti-incumbency whispers into non-starters.
The grand alliance’s cohesion crumbled under the weight of its weakest ally, the Congress, whose disappointing performance destroyed the bloc’s overall momentum.
Contesting 61 seats, the Congress is leading on only four, down from 79 per cent in 2020, with its vote share falling from 9.48 per cent to around eight per cent. The poor performance dragged down allies like the RJD, whose seats dropped from 75 to 31 despite a 23 per cent vote share, the highest among single parties.
Internal strife over seat-sharing led to friendly contests on 11 seats, leading to a drain on resources and voter transparency.
Rahul Gandhi’s reported dissatisfaction with this formula kept him away from the campaign trail for nearly two months after the September voter rights tour, weakening the high-decibel pressure of the alliance.
Key Congress figures faltered, with state party chief Rajesh Ram losing by 3,721 votes and Congress legislature party leader Shakeel Ahmed Khan losing by 18,816 votes. This highlighted the decline in organizational depth, making the Congress a liability that failed to counter the BJP’s narrative on allegations of vote theft.
This weakness compounded the Grand Alliance’s numerical disadvantage, with Congress’s Economically Backward Classes (EBC) pivot alienating the upper caste remnants without garnering new votes.
The grand alliance’s hopes of stoking anti-NDA sentiments were dashed as its base weakened due to fragmentation of votes.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party won seats, starting with a 3.5 per cent vote share, but the grand alliance’s tally fell by 2.8 points by appealing to urban youth and migrants frustrated with status quo jobs.
Similarly, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) fragmented the Muslim votes in Seemanchal, where the grand alliance was ahead in just eight to 10 seats out of 24, down from its strong performance in 2020.
Despite the inclusion of micro-allies like Mallah and Vikassheel Insaan Party for EBC Outreach, the grand alliance’s vote share remained stagnant at 37.3 per cent, garnering zero seats in 10 contests.
This fragmentation was in contrast to the bipolar efficiency of the NDA, where the effective number of parties dropped to 2.65, leaving an additional 151 seats with a vote lead of 10 points over the Grand Alliance.
In Shahabad, the 2020 grand alliance’s bastion with 20 out of 22 seats, Jan Suraj’s buzz helped give the NDA a lead of 10 to 12, underscoring how new options entice fence-sitters without benefiting the opposition.
As Jan Suraj spokesperson Pawan K Verma admitted, his failure to win trust was due to his lack of grassroots roots, but the damage to the Grand Alliance was concomitant and serious.
Bihar’s caste count, which was once the strength of the Grand Alliance through the RJD’s Yadav-Muslim axis, took a back seat due to the NDA’s extensive social engineering.
The grand alliance’s eclectic mix of 14 per cent Yadavs and 17.7 per cent Muslims cannot match the NDA’s rainbow alliance; BJP’s upper caste hold on 22 per cent of the population, JD(U)’s EBC and Mahadalit vote share has increased from four per cent to 19 per cent, and LJP (RV)’s Dalit and Paswan solidarity from five to six per cent.
The number of women was nine points higher than that of men, which is in favor of Nitish Kumar’s 20 years of goodwill with schemes like Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana with Rs 10,000 grant and livelihood self-help groups.
In Jehanabad, elderly women described ration and respect as drivers of loyalty and promoted NDA in more than 50 seats in Mithilanchal-Kosi.
Irrespective of the grand alliance’s origins, the NDA fielded four victorious Muslim candidates, such as JD(U)’s Shagufta Azim in Araria, who led in 10 to 12 Seemanchal seats, a change from zero Muslim MLAs in the outgoing House.
There was no increase in the caste mobilization of the Grand Alliance, because small inclusions like Bharatiya Inclusive Party for Tanti-Pan castes did not provide any benefit.
Tejashwi Yadav’s 85 rallies targeted youth unemployment, but the grand alliance’s scare and Nitish’s flip-flops on voter list revision proved hollow in the face of the NDA’s 84 Nitish-led development meetings.
Rahul Gandhi’s efforts for Muslim belt in Seemanchal flopped, due to which the region tilted in favor of NDA.
Tejashwi’s forecast of 160 seats was reduced to less than 50, reducing credibility amid the NDA’s welfare narrative on housing and ration.
Analysts credited Nitish’s steadfast strength in consolidating non-Yadav OBCs at 35 per cent of the voters, while the grand alliance’s defensive axis ignored aspirational changes, giving the NDA 30 to 35 seats in Magadha and 20 to 23 seats in Angika.
The grand alliance’s defeat in 2025, from 110 seats in 2020 to 39, signals a deep malaise, with Congress’s irrelevance and risk of fragmentation hampering future national ambitions.
For the NDA, this is a confirmation of Nitish’s stable formula, although 3.5 per cent of the Jan Suraj is indicative of creating urban unrest.
As Bihar eyes 2029, the opposition must introspect: rebuild alliances without baggage, formulate bold visions and reclaim the welfare-caste narrative.
Till then, Nitish Kumar’s third term cements the NDA era of Bihar.
–IANS
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