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When the Prime Minister of Hungary viktor orban met the president donald trump At the White House on Friday, his priority will be convincing the US administration to turn a blind eye to Hungary’s intransigence to buy Russian oil, a potential test of how deep the affinity runs between the two friendly leaders.
Orban, a vocal opponent of Russia’s dominance of Hungary during the Cold War, has made a dramatic shift toward Moscow in the past decade that has stunned his opponents and many former allies.
Orban, widely considered Russian President Vladimir Putin’s most trusted lawyer in the EU, has maintained warm relations with the Kremlin despite his war with him. ukraineHe has also supported Trump and his MAGA movement, which sees Hungary as a shining example of conservative nationalism despite the erosion of its democratic institutions.
But now, as Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches its fourth anniversary, Orban is under increasing pressure from both Brussels and Washington to end Hungary’s dependence on Russian oil, a resource seen as vital to financing Moscow’s war.
Last month, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Russian state-linked energy giants Lukoil and Rosneft that could subject their foreign buyers – such as India, China and Hungary – to secondary sanctions.
Yet the Hungarian leader hopes his personal relationship with Trump will score him points in Friday’s meeting, the first between the two leaders since Trump took office again in January. In comments on state radio last week, Orban made clear he would try to “convince the Americans” that Hungary needs a limit to its continued purchases of Russian energy.
Orban says there is no alternative to Russian oil
At the heart of Orbán’s appeal for the exemption is his claim that Hungary, located in the heart of Central Europe, has no viable alternative to Russian crude, and replacing those supplies would lead to economic collapse. Critics dispute that claim.
Yet Trump has signaled that Orbán’s arguments could have an impact. In October, he called Orban a “very great leader” and said Hungary was “kind of stuck” when it came to Russian oil purchases. Trump said Hungary has “a pipeline” – Druzhba, which supplies Russian crude through Ukraine and into Central Europe.
However, another pipeline, Adria, which originates from Croatia’s Adriatic coast, also supplies non-Russian crude to Hungary’s main refinery – a route Orban’s critics and the Croatian oil transport company argue could better meet Hungary’s energy needs.
Atlantic Council fellow Daniel Fried, a former US ambassador to Poland, rejected Orbán’s complaints that Hungary lacks other options for energy.
“Don’t insult everyone’s intelligence,” Fried said, noting that Poland, also in central Europe, has spent years preparing options. “Hungary has done none of this. All they have done is whine and complain.”
While most EU member states sharply reduced or halted Russian fossil fuel imports after Moscow invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Hungary and neighboring Slovakia have continued their pipeline deliveries. Hungary has increased the share of Russian oil in its energy mix from 61% before the war to about 86%, according to a report by independent researchers.
Peter Ruff, director and senior fellow of the Center on Europe and Eurasia at the Washington-based Hudson Institute, said that although Hungary has enjoyed a competitive advantage over other European states by purchasing Russian supplies, “Clearly, President Trump’s decision to hammer down sanctions against Russian oil … has drawn Hungary’s attention.”
“Despite persistent urging, Budapest has resisted diversifying its energy mix for years,” Ruff said. “Alarm bells should now be ringing in Budapest.”
Budapest summit?
In October, Trump announced he would meet again with Putin for talks on ending the war in Ukraine and that the Hungarian capital would provide the venue. The decision was seen as a victory for Orbán, and an attempt by Trump to give a political boost to his ally, who is set to face his most challenging election in his last 15 years in power in April.
Orbán praised the decision to hold the meeting in Budapest, and suggested that this choice could be seen as a “political achievement”.
But the meeting was soon canceled, with Trump saying he did not want a “pointless meeting” with Putin, who showed no signs of supporting his maximalist demands on the war.
Yet officials in Budapest are still hopeful that the Trump-Putin meeting can be successful. On Wednesday, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó said at a press conference that “the possibility of establishing peace in Ukraine” would be at the top of the agenda for Friday’s meeting.
“If the US-Russian preparatory work is successful, Hungary stands ready to host the peace summit,” he said.
NATO member Hungary has refused to supply weapons to neighboring Ukraine or allow their transfer across its borders. Orbán has threatened to veto some EU sanctions against Moscow, and has blocked the adoption of major funding packages for Kiev.
Orbán has often taken an adversarial stance toward Ukraine and its President Volodymyr Zelensky, and has consistently portrayed his European partners as warmongers who favor aiding Kiev’s defense. Yet many of Orbán’s critics in the EU view Hungary’s position as favoring the aggressor in the war and fragmenting European unity in the face of Russian threats.
With few friends in Europe, the Hungarian leader is on Trump’s side. Atlantic Council fellow Fried said that given Orbán’s heavy investment in Trump’s MAGA ecosystem, with their meeting on Friday “he’s going to find out what it’s worth.”
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Megerian reported from Washington.