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Interest rates in the UK are widely expected to be kept at 4%, but policymakers are “deeply divided” about the threat of inflation, economists say.
of the bank monetary policy committee (MPC) will take its next decision on interest rates on Thursday.
Many economists expect borrowing costs to remain in check after signs of inflation continuing to ease Edge Looking forward to the measures announced in November’s Autumn Budget.
However, some experts, including banking giants Barclays and Goldman SachsAre predicting a cut of up to 3.75%.
This is because they feel that policymakers may be influenced by recent economic data that indicate the need to further reduce borrowing costs.
Most economists agree that there will be differences of opinion among the nine-member committee when it comes to this week’s vote.
James Smith, UK developed markets economist for ING, said: “inflation Almost certainly the peak has been reached.
“Food inflation – a serious concern for the Bank of England this summer – fell back in September and is now running half a percentage point below official forecasts.
“All this comes at a time when the Bank is clearly divided over how problematic inflation really is.”
Official data showed that UK consumer price index (CPI) inflation stood at 3.8% in September, the same level as both July and August, with food prices falling during the month.
The key figure came in below the 4% that many economists were expecting.
But Mr. Smith said that, while mpc was “deeply divided” it would likely remain cautious about the risk of persistent inflation and opt to keep rates in place this month.
He also said the bank was awaiting budget results on November 26, adding: “Although the outlines of the budget are becoming clearer, the Bank’s rules mean it cannot act on government policy until it is official.”
He said an interest rate cut in December in response to potential tax-raising measures is now “becoming more likely”.
On the other hand, Jack Meanings, chief UK economist at Barclays, predicted that recent inflation data would be enough to prompt policymakers to cut rates on Thursday.
With data pointing to slowing wage growth among UK workers, he said this would give the committee more confidence that inflation is about to ease.
It comes as economists at US investment bank Goldman Sachs also predicted that the recent data would be enough to convince the bank to cut rates to 3.75%.
Many experts were dismissive of the possibility of a rate cut in November and said borrowing costs might not fall until 2026, a blow to millions of mortgage holders still hoping to refinance at higher rates, marking a shift in sentiment.