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hurricane melissa, which came Jamaica With winds gusting to a record 185 mph on Tuesday, there was a beast that stood on top of even the record number of monster storms spawned in extreme heat over the past decade. atlantic ocean.
Scientists were a bit surprised that Melissa somehow weathered at least three different meteorological conditions that typically weaken major hurricanes and still grew in strength.
And while more storms are undergoing rapid intensification these days — with wind speeds peaking at 35 mph in 24 hours — Melissa did much more than that. It achieved what is called superfast acceleration – achieving speeds of at least 58 mph in 24 hours. In fact, Melissa turbocharged nearly 70 mph during a 24-hour period last week, and had an unusual second round of rapid intensification that sent it gusting to 175 mph, scientists said.
“It is a remarkable beast, a beast of a storm.” Colorado State University said hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.
melissa set records
When Melissa came ashore it set strength records for an Atlantic hurricane in both wind speed and barometric pressure, an important measurement used by meteorologists, Klotzbach said and Miami University Hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy. The pressure measurement tied the deadly Labor Day hurricane of 1935 in Florida, while the wind speed of 185 mph was equal to the marks set during Hurricane Dorian that year and 2019. Hurricane Allen in 1980 had winds of 190 mph, but not over land.
Usually when large hurricanes form they become so intense that the air circulating in the center of the storm becomes so intense and hot in places that the eyewall needs to grow, so a small one collapses and becomes a larger one. This is called the eyewall replacement cycle, McNoldy said, and it usually weakens the storm, at least temporarily.
Melissa showed some signs of being willing to do so, but it never happened, McNoldy and Klotzbach said.
Another strange thing is that Melissa sat on the coast of mountainous Jamaica for some time before coming inland. Hurricanes usually happen on mountains, even islands, but not Melissa.
“It was next to a big mountain island and he didn’t even notice it,” McNoldy said in surprise.
Warm water is the fuel of storms. The warmer and deeper the water, the more powerful a storm can be. But when a storm lingers over an area for a while — which Melissa did for several days — it usually brings cooler water from deeper depths, reducing fuel consumption a bit. But that’s not what happened with Melissa, said Bernadette Woods Plucky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central, a coalition of scientists and journalists who study climate change.
“It’s strange how easily this was allowed to get out,” Woods-Placky said. “It had enough hot water at such a high level and it just kept going.”
Hot water promotes growth
McNoldy said Melissa rapidly intensified over a five- to six-hour period as it reached extreme intensity levels. And then it jumped 35 mph and “it’s extraordinary,” he said.
For meteorologists who follow this, “your stomach will drop as you see these updates,” Woods-Placky said.
“We were sitting at work with our team Monday morning and you saw the numbers start going up again, 175. And then this morning (Tuesday) 185,” Woods-Placky said.
“It’s a blast,” she said.
A major factor is hot water. McNoldy said parts of the ocean under Melissa were 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the long-term average for this time of year.
Climate Central, using scientifically accepted techniques of comparing what is happening now to a hypothetical world in which there is no human-caused climate change, estimated the role of global warming in Melissa. It says that due to climate change the water is likely to be 500 to 700 times warmer than normal.
a fast associated Press An analysis of Category 5 hurricanes that have occurred in the Atlantic over the past 125 years shows that there has been a large increase in those top-tier storms recently. There have been 13 Category 5 hurricanes from 2016 to 2025, including this year’s three. Until last year, no other 10-year period had even reached double digits. About 29% of Category 5 hurricanes in the last 125 years have occurred since 2016.
McNoldy, Klotzbach and Woods-Placky said hurricane records from before the modern satellite era are not as reliable because some storms that occurred at sea may have been missed. Strength measurement systems have also improved and changed, which may be a factor. And there was a period between 2008 and 2015 in which there were no Atlantic Category 5 hurricanes, Klotzbach said.
Still, climate science generally predicts there will be stronger hurricanes in a warmer world, even if not necessarily more hurricanes overall, the scientists said.
“We’re seeing a direct correlation between water temperature and climate change in the attribution science,” Woods-Placky said.
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Science writer Seth Borenstein has covered hurricanes for more than 35 years and co-authored two books on them. Data journalist MK Wildman contributed from Hartford, Connecticut.
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