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SWFs vary considerably around the world, with some common characteristics apart from being state-owned investment vehicles. This diversity is particularly noticeable with regard to the purpose for which SWFs were established. The earliest formally formed SWFs focused on managing and investing national windfall surpluses from natural resources, primarily petroleum.
now-iconic Temasek SWF of Singapore It was established to manage the Singapore Government’s equity holdings and investments in domestic businesses while separating the policy and investment management functions, a role from which it has now largely evolved. In recent years, it has become a major mechanism of strategic control over industries deemed critical to national priorities, an objective that has become especially important given geopolitical risks. Some SWFs also aim to catalyze inward investment, capital preservation for reserve assets and even pursue soft power.
While considering SWF for India, clarifying the objective of the SWF would be a paramount consideration. Since each objective SWF involves a very different investment thesis, management strategy and administrative structures; Clarity of objectives is extremely important. Some objectives may even conflict with each other.
Requiring maximum inflation-neutral returns to conserve reserve assets, a money multiplying SWF can be considered effective only at very high returns, while a catalytic SWF may only desire nominal net-positive returns. Narrowly defining the goal of the Indian SWF will be important not only to assess the utility of such a fund for India, but also to clarify the criteria for its success as well as to set the right expectations among the people.
An important aspect of SWF, which is often ignored in the discussion, is the nature and size of returns that accrue through this mechanism and their suitability as a stable source of revenue for the national exchequer. A large part of SWF asset gains are based on mark-to-market calculations and may not necessarily be realized in case of regular outflow of dividends to the exchequer. Most countries impose a limit on annual withdrawals from the funds and even in mature examples such as Singapore, their contribution to the total national budget is relatively limited (18%). To reach a level comparable to the annual government contribution in India, even with a high assumed return of 15%, Indian SWFs would need an asset base of about $700 billion.
Another important consideration is the source of funding for this fund. Without access to any surplus and with a considerable fiscal deficit, India may have to rely on raising funds from the market with the hope that anchor funding by the government may encourage private entities to invest the money. However, in this case, any such fund would not be much different from existing government-promoted investment vehicles like NABARD, SIDBI etc. which are primarily dependent on market borrowings.
It also has an impact on the broader economy in terms of raising funds in the domestic market (constraining credit availability to private entities) and the foreign market (impacting exchange rates and foreign debt levels). A viable option could be to combine the SWF with the central government’s equity holdings in public sector enterprises and other entities, which currently stands at about $83 billion.
Furthermore, accountability and transparency regarding the activities of SWFs is very important, especially in a democracy like India. There is a clear need to ensure that publicly owned resources and national wealth are properly managed and conserved.
On the other hand, without sufficient freedom to identify appropriate investment opportunities and choose investment/disinvestment options based on market conditions, the SWF may not be able to achieve its defined objectives. There are also implications for monitoring and monitoring such decisions through legally mandated auditing mechanisms of government resources. However these types of issues can be partially addressed through a strong legal framework, guideline-driven decision-making approach and recruitment of professional administrators; Many issues may still arise in practice.
There are also doubts as to how effective SWFs can be in achieving goals such as acquiring strategic stakes in strategically important foreign companies as such companies are still subject to local jurisdictions. Local governments may be sensitive to geopolitical pressures. In such cases, any expected control is no actual control. Parallelly, in the case of Indian companies, the extent to which SWFs remain insulated from undue government influence and in turn avoid influencing the decisions of their investee companies on behalf of the government will have a serious impact on the success of the fund.
In the context of these issues, the idea of an Indian SWF requires deep and thoughtful reflection. India has already experimented with a SWF-like entity in the form of the National Infrastructure and Investment Fund (NIIF); However, its scale, success and contribution are limited. Any new body should incorporate this effort as well as lessons from the global SWF experience as this could be a decision with significant inter-generational impacts on national resources. We should start creating a SWF if we need it, not just because we want to.
-Author, Mohitkumar Daga is an independent public policy consultant. Opinions are personal.