Experts warn India has limited scope in trade talks with US

Amitendu Palit, senior research fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, believes India does not have much room to shape its trade talks with the United States. He said, “India has not got a chance to set its agenda in these talks. It is reacting to the agenda set by America.”

Palit said many countries that have signed agreements with the US “are not sure whether they have achieved a win-win outcome.” He said that most accepted what was offered “after lengthy negotiations using repressive and forceful tactics”.

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Asked whether India’s purchase of Russian oil could help progress in talks, Palit said it could improve the environment but warned that other risks also remained. “It is not just Russian oil that is at stake,” he said, pointing to earlier US warnings about tariffs if India lifts oil from Venezuela or Iran. He said any deal now is “just going to stop… not go away”, with more tariff demands likely to come.

Palit said that India should remain alert. “To be honest, there is no end to it… this is a geo-economic turf war,” he said, adding that India’s position between the US and China left it with “limited room for manoeuvre”.

Abhijit Das, an international trade expert and former head of the Center for WTO Studies, agreed that the US could use the Russian oil issue as leverage. “Russian oil purchases are a bargaining chip in the American pocket,” he said. “Tokenistic cuts may help, but we have to see what the US gets in return and how comfortable India is in accepting those demands.”

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Das said US demands could extend to sectors like agriculture and digital trade. “India needs to protect its red lines not only in agriculture and dairy but also in the field of digital trade,” he said.

He said that any deal would yield only partial benefits. “Even if the reciprocal tariff comes down from 25% to 10-15%, we are still in a worse situation than on February 13,” Das said. “It would be hard to call it a win-win.”

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video

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