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For Donna Falia and other young people whose weeks of protests paved the way for Madagascar’s military coup last week, change at the top has brought no immediate relief to their lives.
The 20-year-old accounting student still has to wait in line for hours to get water from a tank in his neighborhood on the outskirts of the capital Antananarivo, because taps at home usually only work at night, and sometimes not even then. The job market is dry anyway.
“For us, personally, there are no answers here yet. I still don’t see any hope for us,” Falia told The Associated Press the day after Col. Michael Randrianari was sworn in as president.
Randrianari’s decision to oust the democratically elected president, Andrey Rajoelina, and install himself as the new head of state follows a playbook with which Madagascar’s nearly 30 million people have become very familiar since the late 1960s. French colonial rule and one that has been used in many other African country in recent years.
Madagascarians largely celebrated the overthrow of the old regime, as they did when Rajoelina first came to power as a transitional leader in a 2009 military coup. But young protesters, whose anger and sacrifices over Madagascar’s high unemployment, poverty and utility cuts prepared the conditions for the coup, can now only hope that their lives will improve under the new leader and that he will finally fulfill his promise to hand over power to a civilian government.
A New Hope, or More Than That?
The protests, which began in September and were largely leaderless, brought thousands of people to the streets in several cities and were initially met with a harsh crackdown by security forces, leaving 22 dead and more than 100 injured. united nationsAt the time the government disputed those figures.
When Randrianarina’s politically powerful CAPSAT unit sided with the protesters earlier this month, Rajoelina realized he had lost the power struggle and fled the country, declaring the coup illegal.
The protesters, who rallied around the same “One Piece” Jolly Roger images that have been featured in so-called Gen Z protests elsewhere in the world, welcomed the military coup, cheering Randrianarina as he announced he was now in charge. He said getting rid of the old government was his top priority and Randrianariina told the nation after being sworn in, “We must convey the opinion of the youth to politicians and all power groups.”
Tsantsa Fiderana Rakotoarison, a 22-year-old student and protestor, said she hoped protesters would continue to be heard.
“Even though CapSat Group took responsibility for the entire change, they know that the youth are able to speak again,” he said.
Falia said he was grateful to the military for helping remove Rajoelina from power, but protesters hoped that Rajoelina’s departure would give the people a chance to elect their new leader.
What can be learned from other coups?
If there are successful military coups in five African countries after 2020, Randrianrina will not leave office soon, even if Madagascar holds elections within two years, as he said. In all five of those countries – Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Gabon and Niger – the person who overthrew the government is still in charge.
“This same army unit played a key role in the regime change in 2009 and now says it commands all armed forces,” Kajal Ramjathan-Keogh, a policing and military intervention expert at the human rights think tank International Commission of Jurists, said in an email. “…They will likely try to hold on to their positions as long as possible.”
It remains to be seen whether Randrianariina can govern effectively, but Ramjathan-Keogh said he had his doubts.
“Military governments have never been able to govern in a way that addresses corruption and serious social issues. Soldiers cannot make good long-term leaders,” he wrote, also noting that Prime Minister Randrianarina, businessman Herintsalama Rajaonarivelo, has not been well received by protesters.
“It will be interesting to see if any young leader comes forward to contest the next elections,” he wrote.
Bakry Sambé, head of the Senegal-based Timbuktu Institute for Peace Studies, said transition after military takeovers has been a challenge across Africa.
“In the Sahel cases (Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso), the coup was legitimized by initial popular support, with the army presenting itself as the savior,” Sambé said, referring to the semi-desert southern edge of the Sahara desert region.
“Young people and civil society see the military takeover as a kind of democratization from the bottom up, but it is unclear how long this will last,” he said.
Political conditions in Madagascar were similar to those in the three Sahel countries before their coup, where the cost of living and poverty rates were relatively high, which the World Bank says affects three-quarters of the population in the vast island nation.
Youth can ‘rise again’
In his Anosimhawelona neighbourhood, Phalia’s situation looks no different than it did before the coup, with regular cuts to electricity and water making life an everyday hassle and no real job prospects.
“Here, people my age, almost all don’t work. They’re standing here with their hands in their pockets – they have no income,” he said, sitting on an old sofa in his one-bedroom home.
Some young protesters – labor unions and civil groups also took part in the demonstration – have vowed to hold the new government accountable if the situation does not improve soon.
“The youth have already said that if their demands are not met they will rise again in the square on May 13,” protester Pharossoa Rakotomanana said, referring to Antananarivo’s central square, where Randrianarina’s unit had joined protesters after they were dispersed.
Rakotomanana, 63, recalled the destruction and looting that occurred during the 2009 coup that brought Rajoelina to power, and was grateful that, so far, it had been avoided this time.
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Magom reported from Johannesburg. Associated Press reporters Monica Pronczuk and Marc Banchero in Dakar, senegalContributed to this report.