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weather office what kind of disclosure Season Britons can look forward to this winter as it makes its first approach for the next three months.
prophet It has said that there is a strong possibility of average or mild conditions this winter. three month outlook For October to December.
There would be a 55 percent chance that the season would be considered “about average”, which is 0.9 times the normal probability. There will be a 30 percent chance that the season will be “mild”, which is 1.5 times the normal probability.
Meanwhile, there is only a 15 percent chance that the weather will be considered “cold,” which is 0.8 times the normal probability.
“The likelihood of mild conditions increases over the overall three-month period, consistent with our warming climate,” the outlook said.
“However, with an increased likelihood of north-westerly or northern outbreaks, colder weather is more likely, with winter hazards likely to be higher than normal in the latter period.”
In terms of rainfall, there was a 70 per cent chance the UK would see “near average” amounts. There is a 20 percent chance that the weather will be “dry” and a 10 percent chance that the weather will be wet.
“The likelihood of a three-month wet period remains below normal,” the outlook said.
“However, due to the increased likelihood of high pressure patterns affecting the south of the UK, the possibility of a three-month dry period is normal. Nevertheless, regional variation in rainfall can be expected.”
The Met Office said that with “north-westerly weather patterns and lower than normal pressure in the north”, most of the rainfall is likely to occur over uplands in the north and north-west of Britain.
Meanwhile, areas in the east and south of the country are less likely to be wet and more likely to be dry.
A 20 percent chance that the coming months will be “windy” is the expected probability. Meanwhile, there is a 65 percent chance that winds will be “near average” and a 15 percent chance that they will be “calm.”
The outlook said: “During this 3-month period, these show an increased likelihood of above normal pressure in or around the south and south-west of the UK and below normal pressure to the north of the UK.
“This favors a higher than normal frequency of north-westerly winds.”
Outlook predicts how likely each category is compared to their normal probabilities which are 60 percent for “normal” and 20 percent for the high or low categories. It predicts whether each category will differ from normal, based on knowledge of expected global meteorological patterns.