Washington DC:
After an hours-long meeting with Donald Trump in Washington DC, French President Emmanuel Macron laid down the endgame in Ukraine, suggesting that a peace deal or ceasefire agreement is highly likely in a matter of weeks. He also spoke in detail about his meeting with President Trump and what the outcomes from that meeting will be.
President Macron was representing all of Europe at today’s meeting with President Trump, since Europe share a common concern over security. Mr Macron had held a meeting with top leaders of the European Union last week. They had held a meeting in Paris over concerns that a US-Russia direct deal on Ukraine will not take into account Ukraine and Europe’s concerns on security. They echoed the same sentiment – that talks on the Ukraine war cannot happen without Ukraine and Europe.
THE ENDGAME SEQUENCE
Donald Trump has said that the three-year-long Ukraine war will end within weeks, and President Macron shared his optimism. Calling the arrival of President Trump to negotiations on Ukraine as a “game-changer”, the French President said “he knows how to re-engage with Russia with the full deterrence capacity of the US”.
Mr Macron however cautioned the US President not to rush into a deal with Moscow. “In 2014, we had a peace deal with Russia. I can tell you from personal experience, since I was one of the two members along with German representative to follow up on the ceasefire. Russia grossly violated every single time – and none of us reacted collectively. So the issue is of trust and credibility – how to ensure Russia does not do this again,” he said in an interview to Fox News.
He went on to say that “For me the sequence of the ceasefire agreement should be as follows – First there should be a negotiation between the US and Russia and then the US and Ukraine. President Trump has announced today that he is willing to have a short-term meeting with Ukraine’s President Zelensky – this is super important.”
“A truce could actually happen in the weeks to come,” he said, adding that “Truce has to be achieved on land, in the air, and at sea, and infrastructure (installed in Ukraine) – and Russia must respect it. If it doesn’t, it will be clear that Moscow is not serious about a peace deal” and Ukraine’s sovereignty.
On Fox News:pic.twitter.com/1dBUFDEOYW
— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) February 25, 2025
“During this period of time – when the truce is in place, we negotiate – on security guarantees (by Moscow), on land and territories (to reclaim or surrender), and it will be the responsibility of the Ukrainian President (to safeguard Kyiv’s interest),” President Macron said.
“For the US,” he said, Washington “will secure a deal on rare earth and other critical minerals”. Confirming that France and the rest of Europe will be fine with this, Mr Macron explained that such a mineral deal for Washington “is important, because this would be the best way to guarantee that the US is also committed” and not back out of Ukraine’s safety and sovereignty.
And on the back of these set of manoeuvres, with all parties invested in maintaining Ukraine’s sovereignty, we will finally have a peace deal, he explained.
KEY STEPS AFTER THE PEACE DEAL
“But how can one guarantee that Russia will not violate this treaty in future,” the French President questioned before giving the answer himself. “There is no consensus for NATO, or having Ukraine join NATO, but if we (European NATO members) leave Ukraine alone, like we did in the past,” there is a risk for another invasion by Russia, he explained.
“So, as a follow-up to the ceasefire, we need to see which type of security guarantee we need going forward. One can be to increase the capacity of Ukraine to maintain a very strong army (on the Russian front). The second option will be for France and the UK to work together on a proposal that the two nations will send combined troops to Ukraine – not to go to the frontline, not to go on confrontation, but to be stationed at locations agreed upon by the treaty that all parties agree on. The aim will be just to maintain a troops presence in Ukraine to keep a check on Russia’s credibility. Of course, this will be with the backing of the US,” he said.
On Europe’s responsibility and the sharing of costs, which President Trump has said is “absent”, President Macron said “We (Europe) are ready to take our fair share of the burden, since it is in Europe. I have already spoken with around 30 European leaders, and a lot of them are ready to be a part of such a defence structure. But Europe wants a guarantee and solidarity from the US that if there is a violation by Russia, and if Ukraine or Europe is attacked, then the US will back us.”
“I discussed this with President Trump this morning and he very clearly announced this morning. If we have this guarantee and solidarity from the US, then I think we have a deal,” he said.
The war in Ukraine completed 3 years on February 24. Thousands of Ukrainian citizens have died and over 6 million live as refugees abroad. Military losses have been catastrophic, although they remain closely guarded secrets. The estimated cost to rebuild Ukraine’s economy after Russia’s invasion has risen to $524 billion, nearly three times its expected 2024 economic output.