Donald Trump has spent only a month in his second term as the US President. However, he has disrupted the international order, weakened the Western alliance and created a sense of insecurity and uncertainty among its members, shocking even some of his supporters.
There has been a paradigm shift in US foreign policy under Trump. He is now closer to Moscow than Washington’s traditional allies. He has embraced the Kremlin’s narrative on Ukraine and has sidelined US allies.
Europeans, who had felt secure under the US military umbrella since the Second World War, are now nervous. They are now not sure if the US under Trump will honour Article 5 of the NATO, which is triggered when a member state comes under attack. It implies that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all.
There is even fear in Europe that Donald Trump may sign a deal with Russian leader Vladimir Putin that will lead to the withdrawal of US forces from Baltic states and effectively kill the NATO alliance.
That will be similar to the non-aggression treaty signed by the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany on August 13, 1939, sending shockwaves to other European countries and prompting Hitler and Stalin to annex neighbouring countries. It is another matter that Hitler invaded the Soviet Union two years later putting an end to the treaty.
Can Europe Survive Without US Military Support?
European members of NATO may call themselves major powers, but they can’t match Russia’s military might without US support. Even after losing more than a hundred thousand men in the Ukraine conflict, Moscow remains a strong military power, mainly because of its nuclear arsenal.
Those who earlier said that Trump would only talk and not act on his threats or promises have become silent. He has signed over 70 executive orders since he started his second term last month and swiftly began implementing his international agenda too.
Ending the Russia-Ukraine war was Trump’s major campaign promise, but hardly anyone expected him to brazenly take Russia’s side and even blame Ukraine for the conflict, which he did.
Last Tuesday he sent his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, to meet his Russian counterpart in Saudi Arabia, to discuss peace. But he ignored Ukraine. Putin, who was shunned by the US and its allies since the invasion of Ukraine, was delighted.
Trump- Zelenskyy Row
A frustrated Volodymyr Zelenskyy criticised Trump, saying the US President was living in a Russian-made “disinformation space.” This infuriated Trump, who is not known for ignoring any comment against him. He called the Ukrainian President a dictator for suspending elections.
Trump also described Zelenskyy as “a modestly successful comedian” who “talked the United States of America into spending $350 Billion, to go into a War that couldn’t be won, that never had to start, but a War that he, without the U.S. and ‘TRUMP,’ will never be able to settle.”
Until Trump started his second term, Ukraine and its leader had full US support. President Biden visited Ukraine many times since the Russian invasion in February 2022 and offered Zelenskyy all possible military and financial support.
Russia was severely punished. The US joined hands with its European allies to isolate Moscow, it faced tough economic sanctions and seized its assets. The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against Putin for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. There were even plans to put Putin and his close allies on Nuremberg-style trials.
Ukraine’s Distant Dream
Until a year ago, Ukraine’s leader was talking about even liberating all its territory, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, with the help of Western military equipment. Ukraine even succeeded in occupying the Russian territory of Kursk, which it thought would be used as a bargaining chip during negotiations with Moscow.
But all that now looks like a distant dream. With Trump back in the White House, it seems all the concessions will be given by Ukraine to end the three-year-old conflict. Zelenskyy is desperate to have some security guarantees against Russia. But the US has so far not promised any.
The US under Trump has now even opposed calling Russia an aggressor in a G-7 statement being prepared to mark the third anniversary of the Ukraine war. The US team removed the phrase from the first draft, which was prepared by Canada, the current holder of the group’s presidency.
Why The Narrative Shift?
Trump has always been an admirer of strongmen like Putin. Even during his first term, he developed a rapport with him. He also dislikes Zelenskyy, whom he sees as more of a roadblock in ending the Ukraine conflict.
As a former businessman, Trump sees things from the perspective of profitable deals. Sanctions have hit Russia, but American companies have also suffered business losses running into billions of dollars as a result. He wants to restore those businesses.
Ukraine is a major producer of critical minerals and Trump wants them for the US. He asked Kyiv to part with half of those minerals as part of a deal. Zelenskyy declined to agree to the deal unless it involved security guarantees against Russia.
Trump has also blamed European leaders for not doing enough to end the Ukraine war. He has complained for a long time that Europe has lived off the US for too long and it must pay for its security. Europeans have increased their defence budgets, but not enough to sustain without US support.
European Plan
In the face of changing US policy under Trump, European leaders are working on a plan to guard against a Russian attack. This involves a proposal to deploy tens of thousands of peacekeeping troops in Ukraine. The proposal has the support of Britain and France and is in response to Zelenskyy’s request of 100,000 troops.
But the idea doesn’t have wider support in Europe. Germany, another big power in the continent, has already called it premature. The proposal has been dismissed by Russia, which has about 600,000 troops in Ukraine. But even Britain and France can’t send troops without some kind of backup from the United States. And that looks unlikely under the Trump administration.
Trump’s Ukraine envoy, General Keith Kellogg, who visited Kyiv and met Zelenskyy on Thursday, said all options must be open to deal with the outcome of peace talks. But he knows that any decision to provide any US military cover will be made by Trump who looks less inclined to do that for the moment.
(Naresh Kaushik is a former editor at the Associated Press and BBC News based in London.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author