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oneAngry at a spiraling economy and decades of authoritarian rule Iran It has flooded the streets of major cities across the country.
For two weeks, In massive nationwide rallies, protesters Calling for regime change, chanting “Death to the dictator” and some even calling Return to monarchy This system was overthrown in the 1979 revolution and gave birth to the current Islamic Republic.
Iran’s government remains deeply affected by crisis Last year’s disastrous 12-day war with Israel and US forcessatisfied protest and carried out bloody suppression. One official told Reuters, 2,000 people may have been killed. More than 10,000 people were arrested. Communications blackouts remain largely in place nationwide.
Donald Trump Have threatened many times military action and sanctions, On Tuesday, he said he had canceled all meetings with Iranian officials, who had taken the initiative to negotiate. He urged protesters to continue protesting and take over institutions. “Save the names of the murderers and abusers. They will pay a huge price,” he continued, adding that “help is on the way.”
The regime insists it remains in control and has warned it will hit Israel and Israel. us If attacked, targeting in the area will become difficult.
Iranian experts say for the first time that this is The most serious existential threat to Iran’s religious rulers. So what happens?
Worst case scenario: Bloodier crackdown, no change
this protest Encountered extreme violence. The few eyewitness accounts obtained by civilians via satellite links described authorities opening fire on the rally. Shocking videos recently showed hundreds of bodies strewn across a forensic facility in southern Tehran. The government blamed the death toll on unrest and “domestic terrorists.”
There are fears that the protests could collapse as repression and mass arrests intensify, especially if there is no outside intervention to challenge the all-powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other armed branches of the country, despite Trump’s promises.
Plays Negar Mortazavi, host this Iran podcast and senior researcher usThe US-based Center for International Policy noted that while the regime is currently at a “disadvantage”, especially after last year’s Israeli bombing campaign, it still retains strong central control.
“Yes, they face a crisis of legitimacy. Yes, people take to the streets to protest every few years, but they have never been able to pose an existential crisis to the regime… which has a monopoly on weapons, power and violence.”
Protesters have been largely nonviolent.
Apart from small armed factions such as the Kurdish and Baloch separatist movements, Iran does not have the capabilities to defeat establishment rebels like those in Syria or Libya.
There are fears the crackdown will continue, with more arrests, torture and killings.
The most uncertain outcome: Trump bombs Iran, takes a bite from his new sanctions — and then what?
Donald Trump Iran has stepped up its threats of military strikes against Iran after last year’s bombing campaign with Israel. On Tuesday, he vowed “help is coming” just hours after U.S. citizens were ordered to leave Iran immediately. Trump also announced a 25% tariff on countries that trade with Iran, which will intensify the economic pressure faced by the Iranian regime.
This could prompt countries such as the United Arab Emirates, China, Türkiye and India to downgrade economic ties with Tehran at a critical time.
Last year’s 12-day war with Israel and the United States dealt a devastating blow to Iran, destroying much of its military infrastructure, including air defense systems and nuclear facilities. Military leadership has also been targeted.
While Iran has vowed to launch a swift missile response if Israeli and U.S. bases in the region are attacked, it is unclear how it will do so. Its regional allies in countries such as Lebanon, Syria and Iraq have also been downgraded by Israel’s continued actions and are therefore less able or willing to provide assistance.
Putting aside the legality and civilian casualties of any potential strike, would this help the protesters? Bilal Y Saab who plays Chatham House writes, we just don’t know.
“A lot depends on the nature of the strike, Trump’s willingness to stay the course, and his ability to plan after the strike. The impact could be catastrophic or liberating,” he added.
If this is a one-off, largely performative strike, it could reinforce the regime’s hardline stance against protesters, who are already accused of being funded by foreign agents.
Even if Trump wants to kill someone supreme leader Ali Khamenei may force him to flee, and Iran’s constitution includes emergency plans to appoint a successor. As Sabo points out, the brutal and organized Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could even take over formally.
Is Trump, a self-proclaimed peacemaker and champion of an “America First” foreign policy, willing to go to great lengths to engineer regime change—a potentially disastrous long-term military occupation, as he did in Iraq after 2003? His recent intervention in Venezuela demonstrates his unwillingness to commit to comprehensive regime change.
Still, Gissou Nia, an Iranian-American human rights lawyer who works at the Atlantic Council, explained that Trump’s comments “emboldened” protesters to even raise signs praising him.
The regime will also try to simultaneously defend itself militarily and suppress escalating nationwide protests. Especially if these attacks weaken all internal tools of repression, including the Basij, the volunteer paramilitary force within the wider structure of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Ostensible ‘solution’: Regime negotiates with US, proposes vague reforms, and retains power
One option is that the regime pursues primarily performative adjustments—for example, limited economic reforms or a shift in rhetoric toward nationalism rather than ideology. That could go hand in hand with direct negotiations with Trump to avoid a military strike and tougher sanctions.
Such reforms would fall far short of the demands of protesters who explicitly call for the overthrow of the regime. But amid a series of arrests and executions, fear may inhibit further mobilization. If Trump is seen negotiating directly with Iran’s top leadership, any hope of outside support for the country’s armed networks will be dashed.
The most unlikely scenario: an exiled prince returning to Iran to “oversee” the transition to democracy or even federalism?
Former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who has been in exile in the United States for decades, has urged protesters to take to the streets since the protests began. He even said he was preparing to return to Iran, even though he had not set foot in the country since 1979, when his father, the last Shah of Iran, was overthrown.
Pahlavi retained a modest monarchist support base, with some protesters chanting “Long live the king.” He did declare himself ruler of Iran at a ceremony in Egypt in 1980, a year after his father was overthrown, but has since distanced himself from calls to restore Iran’s Mauryan throne.
Instead, he outlined a 100-day transition plan, telling reporters it was “not about restoring the past” but about securing a democratic future for “all Iranians.”
Last year, he told Politico His main goal is to guide Iran through this transition. He proposed that a constitutional assembly of Iranian representatives be convened to formulate a new settlement that would be approved by a referendum.
Ask him if he wants monarchy “I will not be the one to decide this. My role is to make sure that no voice is left behind, whether republican or monarchist, left or right,” he said in June.
Iran is rich in diversity. Minorities including Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Arabs and Baluchis make up nearly half the population, according to the Atlantic Council. They have long accused the central government of discrimination. Some seek greater autonomy and even independence.
Iranian Kurdish opposition source tells independent This week they will push for a federal system that would give regions such as Kurdistan semi-autonomy. They firmly opposed Pahlavi’s return.
For most experts, this remains the least likely outcome. The scale of external intervention required to bring Pahlavi to power or to radically reorganize Iran into a federal system would be enormous. It’s unclear how popular either plan is among a population of nearly 90 million.