Why Trump’s 25% tariffs on Iran are reigniting fears of a global trade war

Why Trump's 25% tariffs on Iran are reigniting fears of a global trade war

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president Donald Trump 25% tariff has been implemented in all IranTrading partners respond to Tehran’s violent crackdown on protesters.

oil price jump to Highest level since November After the news was announced, people were worried about the impact on the global economy.

The attitude of American leaders is very clear On the use of military force in Iran He will discuss “several options” with senior military officials on Tuesday if protesters are killed.

Experts say his latest strategy is to try to force the country into compliance, but the Supreme Court overturned his previous tariff policy.

independent Look at whether the announcement of new tariffs on Iran’s economic allies will have broad economic impacts.

Crowds gather at a pro-government rally in Tehran, Iran, on Monday

Crowds gather at a pro-government rally in Tehran, Iran, on Monday (Getty)

What does Trump’s tariff policy mean?

The US president announced the news in a typically bombastic post in The Truth Society magazine on Monday, but gave no details. He said the order was “final and conclusive” and applied to “any and all business” with Iran.

But the president did not reveal what the plan would mean in practice, or whether the fee would be levied on top of existing import duties. Experts said that if implemented, it may result in Tehran’s largest trading partner China and other countries being levied a 75.2% tariff.

In theory, tariffs mean higher prices for U.S. companies importing products from China, Russia, Pakistan and many other countries. India and Türkiye. This would effectively impose financial penalties on trade with Iran.

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Follow here for the latest updates on the protests in Iran.

US leader makes clear he will use force in Iran if protesters are killed

US leader makes clear he will use force in Iran if protesters are killed (Getty)

Who are Iran’s trading partners?

Iran is a member of the OPEC oil-producing group and exports oil to 147 trading partners, according to 2022 World Bank data.

According to the data, China, Türkiye, Pakistan and India are the country’s largest trading partners trading Data monitor, collects customs data.

China purchased more than 80% of Iran’s oil shipments in 2025, in part because of U.S. sanctions that have left Tehran with a limited customer base. Iran’s exports to China will reach US$22 billion in 2022.

In response to the threat of additional tariffs, China stated that it “will take all necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says the regime will not

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says the regime will not “give in” (Associated Press)

Lie Pengyu, spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in the United States, posted on X (Twitter): “There are no winners in tariff wars and trade wars, and coercion and pressure cannot solve the problem. Protectionism harms the interests of all parties.”

He added that China “firmly opposes any illegal unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction”.

In comparison, India is more of a humble partner. Professor Ashok Kumar, associate professor of political economy at Birkbeck, University of London, said the industry was mainly involved in trading food and medicines but had “strategic significance”.

Iran’s other partners include Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, Germany, South Korea and Japan. Although these countries have relatively low levels of trade with Iran, they could all face penalties.

Donald Trump imposes tariffs he says 'effective immediately'

Donald Trump imposes tariffs he says ‘effective immediately’ (Getty)

What impact will tariffs have?

Experts warn that such a “brutal” strategy could have serious repercussions on the global economy as well as political repercussions.

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“Iran’s imports mainly include intermediate products, machinery, equipment, food and pharmaceuticals, all of which are critical to maintaining industrial production and social stability,” Professor Kumar said.

“Severing Iran from this trade network would not just reduce revenue. It could cause cascading disruptions in supply chains far beyond Iran’s borders.”

His concerns were echoed by others, including former IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld, who told CNN washington post This could be “a serious self-inflicted injury to the United States, and [it] It will not change the behavior of the Iranians in the slightest.”

Professor Kumar said the decision hinged on whether the United States could “credibly threaten widespread tariffs without causing significant damage to its economy.” Furthermore, U.S. demands for acquiescence could lead to political backlash and resentment.

“Will major powers accept the precedent of their foreign trade relations being effectively vetoed by Washington?” he asked. “Will escalating economic pressure on Iran increase the likelihood of political change at a time of domestic unrest, or solidify hardliners and deepen global polarization?”

Trump said the United States would be “done” if the Supreme Court blocked his landmark trade policy.