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India have surpassed Japan Become the fourth largest in the world economy nominally gross domestic productThat’s according to the government’s year-end economic review.
According to the review, India currently lags only behind USA, China and Germanyofficials say it is expected to capture the third spot in the next few years if current trends continue.
The ranking will be determined after the final annual GDP data is released in 2026.
Comments issued by the Federal Press and Information Bureau of India stated that “India’s GDP has reached US$4.18 trillion, surpassing Japan to become the world’s fourth largest economy, and is expected to replace Germany’s third place in the next 2.5 to 3 years. The GDP is expected to reach US$7.3 trillion by 2030.”
The government said real GDP grew at 8.2% in the second quarter of fiscal 2025-26, up from 7.8% in the first quarter and 7.4% in the final quarter of fiscal 2024-25.
The growth was driven by “strong domestic demand amid global trade and policy uncertainty.”
Export performance also improved, with merchandise exports rising to $38.13 billion in November from $36.43 billion in January, driven by growth in engineering products, electronics, pharmaceuticals and petroleum products, the review said.
GDP growth climbed to its highest level in six quarters in the second quarter of fiscal 2025-26. “Domestic drivers, led by strong private consumption, played a central role in supporting this expansion,” the government said.
“The World Bank predicts economic growth of 6.5% in 2026; Moody’s predicts that India will remain the fastest-growing G20 economy, with growth of 6.4% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027; International Monetary Fund The forecast for 2025 was raised to 6.6% and the forecast for 2026 was raised to 6.2%; the OECD forecast economic growth of 6.7% in 2025 and 6.2% in 2026; S&P forecast growth of 6.5% this fiscal year and 6.7% next fiscal year; the Asian Development Bank raised the forecast for 2025 to 7.2%; Fitch has forecast 2026 growth due to strong consumer demand The fiscal year forecast was raised to 7.4%. “
The report states: “India is one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world and is well positioned to sustain this momentum. India aims to achieve middle-income country status by 2047 (the centenary of India’s independence) and the country is laying a solid foundation for economic growth, structural reforms and social progress.”
The International Monetary Fund said India is likely to be ahead of Japan next year; reserve bank of india The growth forecast for the 2025-26 financial year has been revised upward to 7.3%.
Earlier this year, BVR Subrahmanyam, head of the Indian government’s public policy think tank Niti Aayog, told a televised press conference, “As I said, we are the fourth largest economy. As I said, we are a $4 trillion economy, and that’s not my data. It’s the International Monetary Fund’s data. India today is bigger than Japan.”
He went on to claim that India will overtake Germany as the third largest economy after the United States and China in about three years.
However, Analysts at the time urged caution Even after reaching this milestone. They say this should not ignore the fact that the country has deep-rooted socio-economic problems and huge disparities.