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Sir Keir StarmerThe leadership will face a tough test next May, one leading pollster predicts. labor Losses across the UK.
Lord Robert Hayward warns of crushing defeat in UK parliamentary elections welsh senateand "beat" scottish parliament May 7, 2026.
Such a bleak result could reignite questions about Sir Keir’s standing to lead the party after anonymous briefings from his allies targeting potential rivals hit the headlines in November.
While some councils are expected to delay local government reorganization polls until 2027, elections in London and metropolitan areas including Merseyside, Greater Manchester and Yorkshire are set.
Lord Hayward said that while these areas had recently been dominated by Labour, the party was expected to lose to Reform, the Greens, the Lib Dems and pro-Gaza independence candidates in east London.
He said even the Conservatives were likely to pick up seats in London, although the Conservatives’ overall outcome would depend heavily on the smooth conduct of elections in counties where they won resoundingly in 2021 but now face significant losses.
Progress in London councils such as Westminster or Barnet could help cement Kemi Badenock’s position as Conservative leader, which has appeared more secure in recent months as her personal polls have improved.
Conservative peer Lord Hayward said: “A few months ago, May 7 seemed to be a decisive date for both the Labor and Conservative leaderships.
“As we move into 2026, it now looks likely that the May election will decide the fates of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, but whether that will be the case with Kemi Badenoch is less clear.”
He added that while Labor and the Conservatives were likely to lose seats in May, there would not be a clear winner but a “noise of victors”.
Lord Hayward said reforms starting from a low base were likely to make the biggest gains, but a range of other parties were expected to achieve some kind of victory on the night and a clear picture might not emerge until days after the election.
While significant changes are likely to occur in England, Lord Hayward said the results in Scotland and Wales are likely to have the most long-term significance for the UK.
Last year, Labor had been looking to replace the SNP and return to power in Holyrood in 2026.
But that prospect now seems unlikely, with Lord Hayward suggesting the party will suffer “one hell of a hit” while the SNP, Greens and Reform Party are likely to do well.
In Wales, the situation is further complicated given changes to the electoral system, an increase in the size of the Senate and a lowering of the voting age to 16.
Especially given the Caerphilly by-election in October 2025, Plaid Cymru and Reform are expected to do well with Labour’s influence.
A success for the SNP and Glade Cymru could have constitutional consequences beyond the electoral impact on the Labor leadership.
The SNP could renew calls for another independence referendum if it wins a majority in Holyrood, while a major win for Glad Cymru could lead to more outspoken calls for more powers to be devolved to Wales.