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myanmar Sunday will mark the first round of general elections, the first in five years that critics say will neither restore the country’s fragile democracy from the 2021 military takeover, nor end a devastating civil war fueled by the country’s harsh military rule.
The military has framed these elections as a return to multi-party democracy, possibly trying to add a façade of legitimacy to its rule, which began after the military ousted the elected government four years ago. Aung San Suu Kyi,
The takeover triggered widespread public protests that escalated into civil war. The fighting has complicated holding elections in many disputed areas.
Voting will be held in three phases in different parts of the country, the second on January 11 and the third on January 25.
Human rights and opposition groups say the vote will be neither free nor fair and power is likely to remain in the hands of military leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.
Critics doubt genuine transition to civilian rule
Richard Horsey, Myanmar analyst for the International Crisis Group, said the vote was being run by the same military that was behind the 2021 coup.
“These polls are not credible at all,” he told The Associated Press. “They do not include any political party that has performed well in the last election or the one before that.”
Horsey says the military’s strategy is to secure a landslide victory for its favored Union Solidarity and Development party, thereby transitioning Myanmar from direct military rule to a “civilian-clad” government that maintains military control.
This will allow the military to claim that holding the elections has led to progress towards inclusivity in the spirit of the 11-member peace proposal. Association of Southeast Asian NationsWhich calls for “constructive dialogue between all parties concerned” so that they can “find a peaceful solution in the interest of the people.”
It will also provide an excuse for neighbors like China, India Thailand To continue his support, he believes it promotes stability in Myanmar.
Western countries have maintained sanctions against Myanmar’s ruling generals because of their undemocratic actions and brutal war on their opponents.
The military seized power on February 1, 2021, claiming that the 2020 election – won by a landslide by Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy – was illegitimate due to alleged massive voter registration irregularities. However, independent observers found no major problems.
Voting will be held in 102 out of 330 townships of the country on Sunday. Further rounds will take place on January 11 and January 25, leaving 65 townships where no voting will take place due to ongoing conflict with ethnic guerrilla groups and resistance forces.
Although 57 parties have fielded candidates, most are fielding candidates only in their home states or territories. Six parties are competing across the country and have a chance to win enough seats to regain political power, but the rules make it likely that the pro-military USDP will emerge in a position to lead the new government.
In total, about 5,000 candidates are competing for two houses of the national legislature and more than 1,100 seats in state and territory legislatures, although the actual number of seats to be filled will be lower where voting is not taking place in constituencies.
The Central Election Commission has not yet released the total number of eligible voters, but in 2020, there were more than 37 million.
Aung San Suu Kyi and her party are not participating
Myanmar’s 80-year-old former leader and her party are not participating in the elections. Suu Kyi is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence on trumped-up and politically motivated charges. His National League party was disbanded after refusing to officially register under the new military regulations.
Other parties are also boycotting the vote or refusing to contest the election under terms they believe are unfair. Opposition groups have also called for a voter boycott.
Asian Network for Free Elections analyst Amael Weir recently said that Myanmar’s political parties that won 90% of the seats in 2020 no longer exist today.
An election protection law with tough penalties enacted this year has imposed even greater restrictions on political activity, effectively barring all public criticism of the elections. More than 200 people have been charged for leafleting or online activity in the past few months.
All this potentially sets the stage for the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party to dominate the elections and take over from 69-year-old Min Aung Hlaing as president.
Repression and violence continue
The human cost of Myanmar’s conflict has been enormous. According to the independent Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, more than 22,000 people are currently detained for political crimes and more than 7,600 civilians have been killed by security forces since the military seized power.
More than 3.6 million people are internally displaced, the majority of whom have been displaced from their homes due to the war, representing a major humanitarian crisis.
“Myanmar is seeing intensified violence, repression and intimidation ahead of military-controlled elections,” the UN said. human rights The office said. It said civilians were being threatened by both military authorities and armed opposition groups regarding participation.
Amnesty International researcher Jo Freeman said many feared the election would only strengthen the power of those responsible for years of extrajudicial killings.
Horsey of the International Crisis Group believes conflict is likely to escalate in Myanmar after the elections as opponents attempt to prove that the military still lacks popular legitimacy.